AAL - Ready For Take Off?

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A Huge week is coming up for the airline industry next week. As you can recall, the Stimulus Package passed back in March provided the airlines with $25 billion in aid as long as they didn't let go of any their employees for a certain period of time. That certain period of time expires September 30th.

The airlines are asking Congress for additional aid and the clock is ticking. The airlines argue that unlike other traditional jobs, airline employees (pilots, crew, flight attendants, etc.) require extensive training. If you let go of these employees, you can't just hire new ones at the flick of a switch as pilots, flight attendants and mechanics all must be certified by the government and receive proper training.

If additional aid is not given, the airlines are estimating on releasing the following:
American Airlines - 19,000 workers
United Airlines Holdings - 16,000
Delta Air Lines - will delay the effective date for a potential 220 pilot furloughs to Nov. 1
Southwest Airlines Co. have said they will avoid most forced cuts for now, after thousands of workers retired early or took leaves

That being said, either aid is given or 35,000+ more citizens will be added to the unemployment sheet for the month. Personally, we don't see how aid is not given to avoid this grim scenario. This takes us to the TA part:

TA:
We've been accumulating AAL between $11.50-$14.00 since August if you check our previous AAL posts. We think the additional aid will be a huge move up for the stock. Theres several layers of resistance but wouldn't be surprised with this kind of news to see a shot straight to the 200ma at around $16.50 at the moment.

Targets:
1. $16.45 area (where the 200MA will be)
2. $19.10 (top of our resistance line in pink)
3. $19.93 (fib retracement level)
4. $22.73 (previous high)

Now, this a large pump, but very possible. As always, this is a risk. The government could very well delay the aid as it does not come to an agreement, employees are laid off, aid comes later, etc. This is 2020 and worse things have happened. We have our stop losses at $10.75. Keeping a close watch on this one.

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