Apple | Fundamental Analysis + NEXT TARGET
Updated
Apple has long been regarded as the company that Wall Street despises. Sure, there are many fans of the iPhone maker, but as soon as any unfavorable factors emerge, analysts scatter, with everyone predicting that Apple has reached the end of its growth phase and that its glory days are over.
Until the next earnings report, when so-called surprises about how solid its business is unavoidable.
For example, iPhone sales fell 8.1 percent to $65.8 billion in fiscal Q1, and Apple's overall revenue growth was the slowest since 2016, and many believe the tech titan's future is bleak.
So, where do you see Apple in a few years? Will it, as its critics claim, give up, or will it be able to overcome obstacles and maintain its long-term growth trajectory? Most people still place themselves in the latter category, and here's why.
Apple's earnings report was, admittedly, a little disappointing, but not entirely unexpected. Given the consumer electronics giant's supply chain constraints, iPhone sales, for example, may be considered better than they should have been.
Due to plant closures in major Chinese cities, Foxconn, Apple's largest iPhone assembler, was under severe pressure, with employees forced to sleep in the factory due to travel restrictions. However, once China lifted the restrictions, Foxconn quickly resumed much of its production, and its January revenue reached a record $22 billion.
iPhone sales were likely only pushed back for the March quarter, and production increased again, with CEO Tim Cook telling analysts that production "is where we want it to be right now."
While Mac revenues fell sharply in the first quarter, as did wearable device sales, iPad sales increased sharply, indicating that there does not appear to be a widespread consumer demand problem. The main issue is supply, which has, for the most part, stabilized.
Despite its problems, Apple was still growing in relation to the industry as a whole, gaining market share while the industry, including the iPhone industry, was shrinking. According to Gartner analysts, the decline in PC sales outweighed the decline in Mac shipments by a factor of two. In fact, it was "the steepest annual drop in shipments in Gartner's PC tracking history."
Mac shipments were down 10% during that time period, but Asus was the best PC manufacturer, with shipments down 19%. Apple was the only manufacturer to see growth in 2022. Apple's market share increased from 8.6% to 10.7%.
In wearable devices, Apple has a significant advantage over its competitors, with more than twice the market share of its closest competitor. Apple Watch has a 26% market share, while Samsung has a 12% share.
Apple's installed base now exceeds 2 billion active devices, more than doubling from seven years ago.
In terms of Apple's future, it's worth noting that services revenue for the quarter reached a record high of nearly $21 billion. This division includes the App Store, Apple Pay, and a variety of subscription services like iCloud, Apple TV+, and Apple Music.
Last year was a record year for the App Store, with subscriptions increasing 21% to 900 million from 745 million the previous year. And, while service revenue growth slowed to 14% in 2022 from 27% in 2021, that period was part of Apple's and other companies' pandemic boom. Like the supply chain situation, this is simply a return to the mean.
Although Apple stock has recovered 22% from its late-December lows, it is still 15% below its August highs. While this implies that Apple was a better buy in early 2023 than it is today, the tech company's stock is still a great business to own – with plenty of growth ahead, whether in three or ten years.
Until the next earnings report, when so-called surprises about how solid its business is unavoidable.
For example, iPhone sales fell 8.1 percent to $65.8 billion in fiscal Q1, and Apple's overall revenue growth was the slowest since 2016, and many believe the tech titan's future is bleak.
So, where do you see Apple in a few years? Will it, as its critics claim, give up, or will it be able to overcome obstacles and maintain its long-term growth trajectory? Most people still place themselves in the latter category, and here's why.
Apple's earnings report was, admittedly, a little disappointing, but not entirely unexpected. Given the consumer electronics giant's supply chain constraints, iPhone sales, for example, may be considered better than they should have been.
Due to plant closures in major Chinese cities, Foxconn, Apple's largest iPhone assembler, was under severe pressure, with employees forced to sleep in the factory due to travel restrictions. However, once China lifted the restrictions, Foxconn quickly resumed much of its production, and its January revenue reached a record $22 billion.
iPhone sales were likely only pushed back for the March quarter, and production increased again, with CEO Tim Cook telling analysts that production "is where we want it to be right now."
While Mac revenues fell sharply in the first quarter, as did wearable device sales, iPad sales increased sharply, indicating that there does not appear to be a widespread consumer demand problem. The main issue is supply, which has, for the most part, stabilized.
Despite its problems, Apple was still growing in relation to the industry as a whole, gaining market share while the industry, including the iPhone industry, was shrinking. According to Gartner analysts, the decline in PC sales outweighed the decline in Mac shipments by a factor of two. In fact, it was "the steepest annual drop in shipments in Gartner's PC tracking history."
Mac shipments were down 10% during that time period, but Asus was the best PC manufacturer, with shipments down 19%. Apple was the only manufacturer to see growth in 2022. Apple's market share increased from 8.6% to 10.7%.
In wearable devices, Apple has a significant advantage over its competitors, with more than twice the market share of its closest competitor. Apple Watch has a 26% market share, while Samsung has a 12% share.
Apple's installed base now exceeds 2 billion active devices, more than doubling from seven years ago.
In terms of Apple's future, it's worth noting that services revenue for the quarter reached a record high of nearly $21 billion. This division includes the App Store, Apple Pay, and a variety of subscription services like iCloud, Apple TV+, and Apple Music.
Last year was a record year for the App Store, with subscriptions increasing 21% to 900 million from 745 million the previous year. And, while service revenue growth slowed to 14% in 2022 from 27% in 2021, that period was part of Apple's and other companies' pandemic boom. Like the supply chain situation, this is simply a return to the mean.
Although Apple stock has recovered 22% from its late-December lows, it is still 15% below its August highs. While this implies that Apple was a better buy in early 2023 than it is today, the tech company's stock is still a great business to own – with plenty of growth ahead, whether in three or ten years.
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