AAPL: updated short-term projection
Updated
The news will be driving the market this week - it already started last week and forced AAPL price down into the forecast zone from my last post
Futures are already in the negative for all 3 major US indices ahead of the Monday market open and so are the ASIA indices. that can be a hint for an open to the downside. If AAPL opens with a gap down, this may scare some longs and also hit stop losses & trailing stops, then we get an accelerated move down that can't be balanced by those who are looking to buy on the dip - a week that opens like that may take us to the $290 - $292 range. But that's only one of many possible scenarios - will see.
* it's hard to tell what happens after but we still maintain the same projection levels, and the projected mid-march target for now - as my most probable scenario - until more details of the price structure develop.
* note that the long terms view continues to be positive for AAPL especially in an election year where the "growing US stock market" is expected to be a tag line - but not before we see a short-term correction that may have started already - driving the stock down to a level that is favorable for accumulation.
i have a small short position (using March puts) that i expect won't stay on for more than a week or 2.
Futures are already in the negative for all 3 major US indices ahead of the Monday market open and so are the ASIA indices. that can be a hint for an open to the downside. If AAPL opens with a gap down, this may scare some longs and also hit stop losses & trailing stops, then we get an accelerated move down that can't be balanced by those who are looking to buy on the dip - a week that opens like that may take us to the $290 - $292 range. But that's only one of many possible scenarios - will see.
* it's hard to tell what happens after but we still maintain the same projection levels, and the projected mid-march target for now - as my most probable scenario - until more details of the price structure develop.
* note that the long terms view continues to be positive for AAPL especially in an election year where the "growing US stock market" is expected to be a tag line - but not before we see a short-term correction that may have started already - driving the stock down to a level that is favorable for accumulation.
i have a small short position (using March puts) that i expect won't stay on for more than a week or 2.
Trade closed: target reached
March PUT position closed when we hit $291 -- didn't want to hold beyond that. Now we sit patiently, watching the action and planning the next move. with all the negative news coming across the wire, it seems AAPL is being pushed down further - not bad for the ones who want to go long.
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