Price Structure:
AAPL has bounced from the recent low around $168 and is now climbing within an upward price channel. Price is attempting to reclaim the psychological $200 level, now acting as short-term resistance.
Trendline Channel: A bullish channel has formed from the April 9th reversal, and the current price is near the midline. Price is showing consolidation just below a previous resistance level at ~$200.32, which aligns with the upper gamma levels.
Key Support/Resistance Levels:
* Resistance: $200.32 → key gamma and technical resistance
* Support: $185.29 (confluence of HVL + breakout area)
* Critical Support: $168.13 → the base of recent bounce
Volume & RSI:
* RSI is trending upward but starting to curve slightly at the 60 zone, showing bullish but cautious strength.
* Volume during the bounce shows aggressive buying but has tapered off recently — signaling a possible pause or retest before continuation.
Bias: Neutral-Bullish (watch for $200 breakout confirmation)
💡 Options GEX Analysis (For Option Trading)
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Levels:
* Highest Positive GEX / Gamma Wall: $200 → A breakout above this may lead to a gamma squeeze toward $205–$220.
* Resistance Levels:
* $205 (12.8% GEX8)
* $220 (35.5% / 2nd Call Wall)
* Put Walls / Support:
* $185.29 = HVL (04/17 expiry)
* $180 and $170 have layered PUT GEX walls acting as support (–22% to –25%)
IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 73.1 (elevated — premiums are rich)
* IVx avg: 68.5
* Put/Call Skew: Puts at 33.2% dominance, indicating hedge pressure, but not panic.
* Sentiment Flags: 🟢🔴🟢 → mixed signals: volatility + hedging pressure but potential support at $185+
🔁 Trading & Option Strategy Suggestions
📊 For Stock Traders:
* Bullish Play: Watch for breakout and retest above $200 → Target $205, $220
* Bearish Play: Rejection at $200 + breakdown below $185 = possible fade toward $175–$168
* Neutral Range Play: Between $185 – $200, consider scalping intraday using EMA/VWAP confluence
🧠 For Option Traders:
* Bullish Strategy:
* Debit Call Spread: Buy 200C / Sell 210C (cheap gamma play on breakout)
* Short Put Spread (Cash-secured): Sell 185P / Buy 175P if price consolidates above 190
* Bearish Strategy:
* Put Debit Spread if price rejects $200: Buy 195P / Sell 185P
* Avoid naked calls — IV is high, and premiums are inflated
🧭 Final Thought:
AAPL is at a decision zone with significant option market activity clustered around $200. A breakout here could trigger a squeeze toward $220, but failure may bring a retest of the $185–$180 range. The GEX layout shows dealer positioning supports upward movement above $200 but is still hedged underneath. Be nimble — wait for confirmation, and don't chase unless the breakout holds.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
Trendline Channel: A bullish channel has formed from the April 9th reversal, and the current price is near the midline. Price is showing consolidation just below a previous resistance level at ~$200.32, which aligns with the upper gamma levels.
Key Support/Resistance Levels:
* Resistance: $200.32 → key gamma and technical resistance
* Support: $185.29 (confluence of HVL + breakout area)
* Critical Support: $168.13 → the base of recent bounce
Volume & RSI:
* RSI is trending upward but starting to curve slightly at the 60 zone, showing bullish but cautious strength.
* Volume during the bounce shows aggressive buying but has tapered off recently — signaling a possible pause or retest before continuation.
Bias: Neutral-Bullish (watch for $200 breakout confirmation)
💡 Options GEX Analysis (For Option Trading)
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Levels:
* Highest Positive GEX / Gamma Wall: $200 → A breakout above this may lead to a gamma squeeze toward $205–$220.
* Resistance Levels:
* $205 (12.8% GEX8)
* $220 (35.5% / 2nd Call Wall)
* Put Walls / Support:
* $185.29 = HVL (04/17 expiry)
* $180 and $170 have layered PUT GEX walls acting as support (–22% to –25%)
IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 73.1 (elevated — premiums are rich)
* IVx avg: 68.5
* Put/Call Skew: Puts at 33.2% dominance, indicating hedge pressure, but not panic.
* Sentiment Flags: 🟢🔴🟢 → mixed signals: volatility + hedging pressure but potential support at $185+
🔁 Trading & Option Strategy Suggestions
📊 For Stock Traders:
* Bullish Play: Watch for breakout and retest above $200 → Target $205, $220
* Bearish Play: Rejection at $200 + breakdown below $185 = possible fade toward $175–$168
* Neutral Range Play: Between $185 – $200, consider scalping intraday using EMA/VWAP confluence
🧠 For Option Traders:
* Bullish Strategy:
* Debit Call Spread: Buy 200C / Sell 210C (cheap gamma play on breakout)
* Short Put Spread (Cash-secured): Sell 185P / Buy 175P if price consolidates above 190
* Bearish Strategy:
* Put Debit Spread if price rejects $200: Buy 195P / Sell 185P
* Avoid naked calls — IV is high, and premiums are inflated
🧭 Final Thought:
AAPL is at a decision zone with significant option market activity clustered around $200. A breakout here could trigger a squeeze toward $220, but failure may bring a retest of the $185–$180 range. The GEX layout shows dealer positioning supports upward movement above $200 but is still hedged underneath. Be nimble — wait for confirmation, and don't chase unless the breakout holds.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.