ACB Analysis
Updated
Have a strong belief that this stock is going down to at least the key level of 11.525.
11.525 will provide a great level of support, conveniently this is also where the 38.2% fib retracement is lands.
Also notice the purple moving average line, after previous runups the stock tends to like to touch this line before it will go anywhere again.
Take a look at the GANN fans and they will also lead you to this exact key level.
We may expect a slow downward consolidation for the next week or so, at this point the price will be on the key level/fib/ and ma will have moved up to there by then.
If you take a human behavioural look at the stock, the bigger plays had been dumping heavily into the most recent run, this can be seen on an indicator such as the MFI.
There has been a mad influx of new investors, most of whom have never even placed a trade before. These investors will begin getting anxious after watching their friends make huge gains and slowly begin to dump at a small loss.
Many articles are going to start being released regarding the insane valuations, and I would not be surprised if the gov't didn't throw a wrench in some of their plans and tax expectations.
Keep a keen eye on different stock forums, twitter, twits, etc. You may see a shift in the overall optimism of the market, the human element is going to be the most crucial part of trading a stock like this.
If you are planning on opening up a short or put position, the volume is going to be your best indicator.
You will want a low volume level for the run down, if you see a big down bar this may signal a bottom before the next run up.
Best of luck whether you're long or short on this.
This was just a quick writeup, about 10% of my total analysis on this.
I may add more later or at another date.
11.525 will provide a great level of support, conveniently this is also where the 38.2% fib retracement is lands.
Also notice the purple moving average line, after previous runups the stock tends to like to touch this line before it will go anywhere again.
Take a look at the GANN fans and they will also lead you to this exact key level.
We may expect a slow downward consolidation for the next week or so, at this point the price will be on the key level/fib/ and ma will have moved up to there by then.
If you take a human behavioural look at the stock, the bigger plays had been dumping heavily into the most recent run, this can be seen on an indicator such as the MFI.
There has been a mad influx of new investors, most of whom have never even placed a trade before. These investors will begin getting anxious after watching their friends make huge gains and slowly begin to dump at a small loss.
Many articles are going to start being released regarding the insane valuations, and I would not be surprised if the gov't didn't throw a wrench in some of their plans and tax expectations.
Keep a keen eye on different stock forums, twitter, twits, etc. You may see a shift in the overall optimism of the market, the human element is going to be the most crucial part of trading a stock like this.
If you are planning on opening up a short or put position, the volume is going to be your best indicator.
You will want a low volume level for the run down, if you see a big down bar this may signal a bottom before the next run up.
Best of luck whether you're long or short on this.
This was just a quick writeup, about 10% of my total analysis on this.
I may add more later or at another date.
Note
Somewhat surprised to see a gap down at open. Once this happened we saw new investors face panic for the first time and a good chunk of them would have sold. When I was trying to find a bottom this morning to go long on the price became very close to the 50ma on the 4H, however it did not touch so I took no long position.
Also find it interesting how the price stopped precisely on the lower fan that points upward, which proves this is a valid force when it comes to using this line in the future.
The key level still stands, just as resistance now. This is confirmed with the the price action of not being able to get over that line.
My next steps on this stock are as followed.
1. I predict we will see some consolidation until the price does touch the 50 on the 4h.
2. Price should trade in the channel of 9.59-11.53.
3. The levels of 9.59 and 11.53 could provide a great day trade opportunity. These will stand as support and resistance. It will take a great deal of volume to break through, however once we get past these levels with a certain threshold it will break hard. This may be a great opportunity to take up a short or long, depending on which way it breaks.
Note
Price is also backing down to the 100ma on the hourly. As we consolidate there is a possibility we see a pennant form, which could be an awesome bullish play.
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