ADA - Bullish setup for mid-term LONG trade
Updated
Let me walk you through my thoughts on Cardano...
Bullish factors I am looking at: Weekly 9, possible daily 9, Gambit RSI, Williams &R & BB (both daily) indicating close to oversold, next weekly candle = bullish engulfing of last indication of BTC uptrend on 17/7 candle, daily 9? , RSI oversold signal on Heikin Ashi, RSI close to oversold on candles
Bearish factors I am looking at: Possible inv. Cup and Handle, on longer timeframes (1W) still not close to oversold
Possible scenarios:
Most bearish scenario: There is no support and bottom - Straight back to levels from early Oct. (highly unlikely)
Bearish scenario: With weekly and (daily?) 9s indicating an end of a downward trend followed by a 3 weeks rebounce to target 1) and possibly 2). That followed by another downward trend ending up with a full retrace (likely)
Neutral scenario: Sideways for some weeks. Some fundamental change causes a dump or a pump. BTC ETF, ADA roadmap updates, releases, ADA adoption etc. are in favor of a pump (likely)
Bullish scenario: Bear market is over. The weekly 9s on many big coins indicate that to a certain extent. In that case we would see a nice upward swing in direction to previous highs being stopped at 6000 sat level (3))(unlikely)
Most bullish scenario: Bear market is over. Big ADA adoption and news come out in the next weeks (E.g. Testnet of Virtual machine) as a catalyst for a pump like in late oct. 2017 (highly unlikely)
Levels to enter:
i) 2500 sat on confirmation of outbreak of the weekly chart
ii) 2100-2300 sat on confirmation of outbreak of the daily chart (purple rectangle)
iii) 1700-1850sat on support level
The timeframe for those levels to enter is the end of the week (closing the 9 candle)
I am especially looking for tomorrows daily candle which should be a 9. If there is an outbreak before that the levels to enter are above.
Targets -- yellow lines (probabilities from current levels):
0.5) 2500 sat - Probability: 15% // Forming a descending triangle - Timeframe: 2-3 weeks (1.25X)
1) 3000 sat - Probability: 55% // Timeframe: 2-4 weeks (1.5X)
2) 4000 sat - Probability: 30% // Timeframe: 4-8 weeks (2X)
3) 6000 sat - Probability: 10% // Timeframe: End of october (3X)
4) 8000 sat - Probability: 5% // Timeframe: End of december (4X)
Stop-losses:
Depending on your targets I would be setting stoplosses for target 0.5 and 1 tight. That means right below the support zone 1600-1700 sat.
For targets 2-4 I would let it go as low ad 1200-1300 sat as this was the previous resistance level of the bull rally in november and december.
Looking one a 1-day candles timeframe:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qMMLWEST/
Many alts show a similar pattern - many are on a weekly 9 and on the daily chart already on a 9 or close to it like ADA.
Also from an oversold perspective ADA looks, compared to the weekly timeframe, highly oversold here making me confident for a bounce to at least targets 0.5 and 1.
Fyi: ADA is not only available on spot trading, You can Long/Short ADA on Bitmex - check out my Twitter linked to my TV account.
Pump that idea and follow me so that everyone sees it!
Good luck.
Bullish factors I am looking at: Weekly 9, possible daily 9, Gambit RSI, Williams &R & BB (both daily) indicating close to oversold, next weekly candle = bullish engulfing of last indication of BTC uptrend on 17/7 candle, daily 9? , RSI oversold signal on Heikin Ashi, RSI close to oversold on candles
Bearish factors I am looking at: Possible inv. Cup and Handle, on longer timeframes (1W) still not close to oversold
Possible scenarios:
Most bearish scenario: There is no support and bottom - Straight back to levels from early Oct. (highly unlikely)
Bearish scenario: With weekly and (daily?) 9s indicating an end of a downward trend followed by a 3 weeks rebounce to target 1) and possibly 2). That followed by another downward trend ending up with a full retrace (likely)
Neutral scenario: Sideways for some weeks. Some fundamental change causes a dump or a pump. BTC ETF, ADA roadmap updates, releases, ADA adoption etc. are in favor of a pump (likely)
Bullish scenario: Bear market is over. The weekly 9s on many big coins indicate that to a certain extent. In that case we would see a nice upward swing in direction to previous highs being stopped at 6000 sat level (3))(unlikely)
Most bullish scenario: Bear market is over. Big ADA adoption and news come out in the next weeks (E.g. Testnet of Virtual machine) as a catalyst for a pump like in late oct. 2017 (highly unlikely)
Levels to enter:
i) 2500 sat on confirmation of outbreak of the weekly chart
ii) 2100-2300 sat on confirmation of outbreak of the daily chart (purple rectangle)
iii) 1700-1850sat on support level
The timeframe for those levels to enter is the end of the week (closing the 9 candle)
I am especially looking for tomorrows daily candle which should be a 9. If there is an outbreak before that the levels to enter are above.
Targets -- yellow lines (probabilities from current levels):
0.5) 2500 sat - Probability: 15% // Forming a descending triangle - Timeframe: 2-3 weeks (1.25X)
1) 3000 sat - Probability: 55% // Timeframe: 2-4 weeks (1.5X)
2) 4000 sat - Probability: 30% // Timeframe: 4-8 weeks (2X)
3) 6000 sat - Probability: 10% // Timeframe: End of october (3X)
4) 8000 sat - Probability: 5% // Timeframe: End of december (4X)
Stop-losses:
Depending on your targets I would be setting stoplosses for target 0.5 and 1 tight. That means right below the support zone 1600-1700 sat.
For targets 2-4 I would let it go as low ad 1200-1300 sat as this was the previous resistance level of the bull rally in november and december.
Looking one a 1-day candles timeframe:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qMMLWEST/
Many alts show a similar pattern - many are on a weekly 9 and on the daily chart already on a 9 or close to it like ADA.
Also from an oversold perspective ADA looks, compared to the weekly timeframe, highly oversold here making me confident for a bounce to at least targets 0.5 and 1.
Fyi: ADA is not only available on spot trading, You can Long/Short ADA on Bitmex - check out my Twitter linked to my TV account.
Pump that idea and follow me so that everyone sees it!
Good luck.
Note
Up 12% because of Coinbase lolNote
After yesterdays Coinbase announcement pump, ADA holding strong on the buy zone. This would be a great time to partially enter the trade.
Note
Sorry, the probability for target 0.5 is of course not 15% but 80%. The "15%" are meant for only reaching that one target.
Btw: Be careful that there might be a small pullback day tomorrow or Wednesday.
Trade active
Possible scenario for a retrace of ADA Trade active
Target 0.5 reached on Bitmex,Note
Target 0.5 reached on spot trading as well.Next target: 3000 sat. Given the upswing in the overall market there is now a higher probability of reaching it, however, this should not go straight through to the target. I expect somewhere (soon) a retest of previous resistance levels (either 2500 or 2400 sat)
Note
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