Bitcoin update : Elliot wave and confluence zone
Updated
Hello fellas, How are you doing today? I hope you're doing great. welcome back with me with today's technical analysis about bitcoin. Yesterday's rally was so beautiful with around 6% surged to the upside. So, let's see where will the price heads in the near future.
Looking at the chart, This is my best elliot wave count for bitcoin. we can see that the 1-2-3-4-5 structure is the impulse wave for A wave in higher degree and on current price, this could be an A structure to complete the B wave in higher degree and therefore, we're looking for C wave structure in higher degree which in my opinion will be another leg down for bitcoin. And I want to remind you that currently the price is still trending on around the WXYXZ corrective pattern since the end of this year's parabolic move since June 2019. and this ABC structure will complete the Z wave to confirm the potential bottom of bitcoin.
There are 2 areas that I consider as a major resistances in this current move for bitcoin. The first area is the confluence zone of the $7800 - $8000 region which has an alignment with previous broken support, 38.2 fib level, and the median line of the down trend channel which I believe will become a big boundary for bitcoin's next rally. And the most bullish scenario that I can see for now is if the price can break out of the 1st confluence zone, I will look at the 2nd confluence zone (around $9000) as the potential top for this move, it's roughly the golden pocket zone and it has the confluence with the end of the 1st impulse subwave in A wave and the upper line of the down trend channel.
However, as long as the price is still trending inside this down trend channel, I won't expect a bullish bias. Breaking out of the upper line of the channel will confirm the next bullish bias in long term.
Looking at the chart, This is my best elliot wave count for bitcoin. we can see that the 1-2-3-4-5 structure is the impulse wave for A wave in higher degree and on current price, this could be an A structure to complete the B wave in higher degree and therefore, we're looking for C wave structure in higher degree which in my opinion will be another leg down for bitcoin. And I want to remind you that currently the price is still trending on around the WXYXZ corrective pattern since the end of this year's parabolic move since June 2019. and this ABC structure will complete the Z wave to confirm the potential bottom of bitcoin.
There are 2 areas that I consider as a major resistances in this current move for bitcoin. The first area is the confluence zone of the $7800 - $8000 region which has an alignment with previous broken support, 38.2 fib level, and the median line of the down trend channel which I believe will become a big boundary for bitcoin's next rally. And the most bullish scenario that I can see for now is if the price can break out of the 1st confluence zone, I will look at the 2nd confluence zone (around $9000) as the potential top for this move, it's roughly the golden pocket zone and it has the confluence with the end of the 1st impulse subwave in A wave and the upper line of the down trend channel.
However, as long as the price is still trending inside this down trend channel, I won't expect a bullish bias. Breaking out of the upper line of the channel will confirm the next bullish bias in long term.
Note
Looking at my yesterday's analysis, the price is now coming down to touch the yellow region to complete the potential b sub wave. From this level, I see 2 potential market movements.
First, if the price breaks down of this yellow support region, we will see $6400 to be tested again. But, if the price show sign of bounce when it touches this yellow region, we might see another push toward the $8000 region.
Note
So far, the yellow region has defended the price from further loss in the market. Right after the price touch the yellow region, the bullish engulfing candle has formed and get a huge net volume from buyer which makes the volume on 4 hours chart breaks the 90 moving average period. We might see the typical C wave that surpass the top of the A wave as long as the yellow zone can hold the price from further drop.
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