ADA Going to $0.32? Head and Shoulders Pattern Appearing!
Updated
ADA is currently in a fanning bull channel, meaning the support and resistance lines "fan out" or widen as the trend continues. The final bull push happened at the head of the head and shoulders pattern, signaling the end of the trend. The right shoulder is currently forming and once the price falls to the channel support, could mean Cardano falls to at least $0.30.
How do we trade this?
The probability of profit is always greater trading with the trend, but we have a reversal pattern playing out which brings us pause entering in a long. Bitcoin, a leading indicator of the crypto market, is stalling in price and pulling back. My recent 4HR and Weekly analysis depicts Bitcoin's fate, which shows a falling price. This could hinder ADA from climbing in price, so we need to see what happens when it comes in contact with the trend support line around $0.36.
If we see a bull signal bar (strong bull bar closing near its high with a tail 1/3 to 1/2 the size of the bar) followed by a strong bull confirmation bar (large bull bar closing on or near its high), then we have a long signal.
If ADA has a bear bar closing below the channel support followed by a failed attempt to come back into the channel (confirmation), then it is reasonable to short to the 4HR 200EMA around $0.32.
Key Points
1. Fanning Bull Channel: Price swings increase as the trend continues, probability of profit is higher when longing
2. Potential Head and Shoulders Forming, a reversal pattern that should bring pause when wanting to enter a long
3. Bitcoin is a Leading Indicator, the Risk of Pullback, could hinder ADA's ability to climb
4. RSI has Room to Fall. A weak indicator on its own, but supports #2 and #3
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
How do we trade this?
The probability of profit is always greater trading with the trend, but we have a reversal pattern playing out which brings us pause entering in a long. Bitcoin, a leading indicator of the crypto market, is stalling in price and pulling back. My recent 4HR and Weekly analysis depicts Bitcoin's fate, which shows a falling price. This could hinder ADA from climbing in price, so we need to see what happens when it comes in contact with the trend support line around $0.36.
If we see a bull signal bar (strong bull bar closing near its high with a tail 1/3 to 1/2 the size of the bar) followed by a strong bull confirmation bar (large bull bar closing on or near its high), then we have a long signal.
If ADA has a bear bar closing below the channel support followed by a failed attempt to come back into the channel (confirmation), then it is reasonable to short to the 4HR 200EMA around $0.32.
Key Points
1. Fanning Bull Channel: Price swings increase as the trend continues, probability of profit is higher when longing
2. Potential Head and Shoulders Forming, a reversal pattern that should bring pause when wanting to enter a long
3. Bitcoin is a Leading Indicator, the Risk of Pullback, could hinder ADA's ability to climb
4. RSI has Room to Fall. A weak indicator on its own, but supports #2 and #3
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Note
The head and shoulders pattern is forming nicely. If this 4HR candle closes on or near its low, the pattern is complete and $0.32-$0.33 is a probable target. If you're not already in a short, you have a 1:1 Risk/Reward ratio entering at this price and taking profit at $0.32 because your protective stop should be just above the right shoulder. The short is reasonable, but your position size should be smaller to accommodate for the larger stop loss.
Stay tuned for more updates!
-Joe Dean
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