ADA and ADA.D and crazy targets
Updated
ADA has had an extraordinarily good last 5 days and we are going into the weekend before the weekly candle closes so a lot of the observations on the chart are still pending. This post is just another iteration of my volatility and momentum system that I have developed over the last couple of years. Just grinding what works for me.
The Thumbs up are what has flipped bullish and needs to be maintained till the weekly close. The question marks are what still need to develop and are unlikely to develop this period. Getting everything to be thumbs up on the weekly can get us a high probability impulse. Last time we went from 15c to over $2 before the weekly VSTOP flipped. We can outdo that this impulse.
The chart below Using the double ichimoku clouds for trends and volatility we can see price action has popped above the kijun (crypto) settings and both clouds are bullish. This is a very good place to be if you are long. The On Balance Volume EMAs are getting themselves stacked bullish once again with OBV above the 10 EMA, which is above the 20, which is above the 100.
There is not a lot of detail to the monthly chart but it is clear that no component of my system flipped bearish on this time frame while other top coins did. That puts ADA as a leader. I am not going to give you a powerpoint of death, but ADA is bullish on the daily, 3d and monthly according to my system. It just needs to get the weekly sorted out and I believe that has a high chance of happening.
The chart on Ada Dominance is extraordinarily bullish. It may go x3 in 2022 in a bull market which suggest massive gains for ADAUSD. The rising wedge does appear to converge on the 1.618 level and generally that predicts a breakdown to the bottom of the wedge. In blow off tops you can see price action pop out the top of a rising wedge before reversing in dramatic fashion. This will be a chart to watch.
Here is my crazy bull market scenario. I have seen enough movements assets to reach the 2 line that I think this has a higher chance of occurring than most people would initially accept.
Have a look at TSLA. It consolidated for 6 years and then has gone up to the 3 line and might take out the 4 line on the next upleg. Absolutely crazy target. If you said that TSLA could be at 715 when it was at 50 (accounting for the split) and you thought 1400 was a target people would have called you mad. But a few years later here we are. And ADA has a lower market cap and a faster market cycle.
Here is Bitcoin with a fib log channel from 2015 when it was under $200. That 1.618 line has been very predictive of stalls and tops. The 1 line was very powerful as support. I think we will see BTCUSD approach the 2 line, very easily. All that suggest to me that my ADA target is crazy, but doable.
My plan? Look for pull backs to buy on the 12h or daily on heiken ashi candles and use those to add to my position and set stop losses. If price is above the clouds and above the 50 period and we go from red to green and get some shadow less candles it is time to look for an impulse. I hope to let my winners run and so I will be doing more of trailing my stops up than taking profits unless we are at a serious level on the fib log channel.
The Thumbs up are what has flipped bullish and needs to be maintained till the weekly close. The question marks are what still need to develop and are unlikely to develop this period. Getting everything to be thumbs up on the weekly can get us a high probability impulse. Last time we went from 15c to over $2 before the weekly VSTOP flipped. We can outdo that this impulse.
The chart below Using the double ichimoku clouds for trends and volatility we can see price action has popped above the kijun (crypto) settings and both clouds are bullish. This is a very good place to be if you are long. The On Balance Volume EMAs are getting themselves stacked bullish once again with OBV above the 10 EMA, which is above the 20, which is above the 100.
There is not a lot of detail to the monthly chart but it is clear that no component of my system flipped bearish on this time frame while other top coins did. That puts ADA as a leader. I am not going to give you a powerpoint of death, but ADA is bullish on the daily, 3d and monthly according to my system. It just needs to get the weekly sorted out and I believe that has a high chance of happening.
The chart on Ada Dominance is extraordinarily bullish. It may go x3 in 2022 in a bull market which suggest massive gains for ADAUSD. The rising wedge does appear to converge on the 1.618 level and generally that predicts a breakdown to the bottom of the wedge. In blow off tops you can see price action pop out the top of a rising wedge before reversing in dramatic fashion. This will be a chart to watch.
Here is my crazy bull market scenario. I have seen enough movements assets to reach the 2 line that I think this has a higher chance of occurring than most people would initially accept.
Have a look at TSLA. It consolidated for 6 years and then has gone up to the 3 line and might take out the 4 line on the next upleg. Absolutely crazy target. If you said that TSLA could be at 715 when it was at 50 (accounting for the split) and you thought 1400 was a target people would have called you mad. But a few years later here we are. And ADA has a lower market cap and a faster market cycle.
Here is Bitcoin with a fib log channel from 2015 when it was under $200. That 1.618 line has been very predictive of stalls and tops. The 1 line was very powerful as support. I think we will see BTCUSD approach the 2 line, very easily. All that suggest to me that my ADA target is crazy, but doable.
My plan? Look for pull backs to buy on the 12h or daily on heiken ashi candles and use those to add to my position and set stop losses. If price is above the clouds and above the 50 period and we go from red to green and get some shadow less candles it is time to look for an impulse. I hope to let my winners run and so I will be doing more of trailing my stops up than taking profits unless we are at a serious level on the fib log channel.
Note
I was trailing my stops up for my margin position on a lower time and got wicked out. It appears that we are seeing profit booking above the 0.786 retracement level (in black). The lower time frame gives me an elliot wave count as shown and so I will be looking to buy within the red area on a pull back using the blue retracement.Here is the daily chart with standard candles:
And here is the 6 hour chart in HA:
I don't like the divergence on the MACD Histogram its double top when I am in a leveraged position especially with a potential reversal pattern on the daily and a chance to buy within wave 4. Might take a day or two for the price to hit target and show the upward trend is reasserting,. If/when we get into the buyzone the stop loss would be the bottom of the zone, as an Elliot wave ABC correction cannot go below 2ave 4. If it does I got my count wrong.
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