ADA/USD to $3+ by May 1st? It just might... Detailed TA
With a TK cross in the Ichimoku cloud, daily MACD crossover, new BTC ATH, and ADA/USD breakout above 1.34, it looks like the reversal we've been waiting for is finally here after more than six weeks.
In this video, I discuss the possibility of breaking above $3 by May 1st, as suggested by David Ward (@Wycoffmode) in his most recent video. David has great analysis videos and has a record of calling major swings and trends using his Bollinger Band and Phoenix Ascending indicators. I highly recommend watching his videos and trying his indicators. I have linked his latest video below.
Summary of my analysis:
- It looks probable that ADA has started a reversal from the consolidation over the past 6 weeks. The next few days should confirm reversal
- Upward momentum is now seen in most charts across 12 timeframes
- But, upward momentum is just starting. Sustained upward momentum will be needed the next five days to set up an exponential move at the end of the month
- For now, an exponential move is still only possible, but looking more likely by the day. If trends continue, then by this weekend it could be reclassified as probable.
- Unless markets go crazy, around May 1st seems the earliest for an ATH as high as $3+. It may take another 1 week or 2 to reach that level
- Price Targets of $3.21 to $3.44 looks possible, but currently I see that as an ideal scenario. Many strong Fibonacci and resistance levels would need to be broken and the market would need to be able to support an ADA market cap that is 44% of Ethereum's current market cap. These Price targets would be a fair bit beyond the widest Bollinger Band and the end of the month.
- My analysis suggests a more conservative top around $2.50, though I am happy if it goes much higher :)
- Worst case on May 1st is ADA in the 1.50 to 1.60 range, having broken the 1.47 fib/1.50 psychological level
- Expect volatility and some retracement in the next week.
Tips:
1) Wait for confirmation if possible (April 18th/19th)
2) Be prepared to buy the dips, particularly if the 1.34 support level is retested
3) Spread out orders below current levels to catch as much ADA as you can during any downswing
4) Manage your risk, especially if going margin long. Avoid anything more than 3x in most cases
This video replaces my video several days ago about the two week outlook for ADA, which is largely invalidated now.
In this video, I discuss the possibility of breaking above $3 by May 1st, as suggested by David Ward (@Wycoffmode) in his most recent video. David has great analysis videos and has a record of calling major swings and trends using his Bollinger Band and Phoenix Ascending indicators. I highly recommend watching his videos and trying his indicators. I have linked his latest video below.
Summary of my analysis:
- It looks probable that ADA has started a reversal from the consolidation over the past 6 weeks. The next few days should confirm reversal
- Upward momentum is now seen in most charts across 12 timeframes
- But, upward momentum is just starting. Sustained upward momentum will be needed the next five days to set up an exponential move at the end of the month
- For now, an exponential move is still only possible, but looking more likely by the day. If trends continue, then by this weekend it could be reclassified as probable.
- Unless markets go crazy, around May 1st seems the earliest for an ATH as high as $3+. It may take another 1 week or 2 to reach that level
- Price Targets of $3.21 to $3.44 looks possible, but currently I see that as an ideal scenario. Many strong Fibonacci and resistance levels would need to be broken and the market would need to be able to support an ADA market cap that is 44% of Ethereum's current market cap. These Price targets would be a fair bit beyond the widest Bollinger Band and the end of the month.
- My analysis suggests a more conservative top around $2.50, though I am happy if it goes much higher :)
- Worst case on May 1st is ADA in the 1.50 to 1.60 range, having broken the 1.47 fib/1.50 psychological level
- Expect volatility and some retracement in the next week.
Tips:
1) Wait for confirmation if possible (April 18th/19th)
2) Be prepared to buy the dips, particularly if the 1.34 support level is retested
3) Spread out orders below current levels to catch as much ADA as you can during any downswing
4) Manage your risk, especially if going margin long. Avoid anything more than 3x in most cases
This video replaces my video several days ago about the two week outlook for ADA, which is largely invalidated now.
Note
Quick update on how charts are looking. ADA did hit a new ATH at 1.54, but was rejected from the 1.53 fib resistance level. So far, it has retraced a small amount. We still need to wait until the 6D and 1W charts close in 4 days, but the trend is still on track with the 6D showing room for a breakout above 1.53 to as high as 1.96.In the next several days there are two key price actions to watch for
1) Possible risk of a deeper retracement to 1.25 (1.25 needs to be maintained for a major leg up at the end of the month)
2) Tests against or breakout above the 1.53 fib resistance level.
Note
April 17 update - With several candles closing this weekend, there are only a couple of days left before we should get a much clearer sense of breakout timing and magnitude.Despite the retracement to 1.33, indicators are still showing a crossover of the white EMA above 50. Green EMA has not rising as sharply above the RSI, but the upward momentum and trend are still intact. Further retracement today could slow this trend, but not reverse it.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.