ADA’s Uptrend is Danger
Updated
Since December 22nd ADA is moving in an upward sloping channel. It has found support on the lower boundaries of the channel in March 9-12 and lately on May 8-15. Notice that ADA tends to leave wicks below the trendline.
ATM it is not clear if ADA will hold the channel support or fail. To be honest, much depends on BTC which is at resistance. Therefore, I have two scenarios, along and a short.
Long Scenario:
If ADA manages to find support above the 4HR EMA and above 0.3755 USD which is the local resistance.
Entry: 0.376
SL: Below channel support at approximately 0.362.
TP1: 0.42 (previous resistance).
TP2: 0.4579 (previous resistance).
TP3: 0.4728 (0.786 fib target).
Be aware that currently ADA is below the 50 EMA on the 4HR and the Daily.
Short Scenario:
Considering that ADA may lose channel support and that BTC is also below the 50EMA on the 4HR and the daily, this scenario is more likely IMO.
Entry: after a break and retest of the channel support at approximately 0.365
SL: above channel support and the 4HR EMA at 0.372
TP: at around 0.3 USD.
You will have to manage this short because much depends on the behavior of the market as a whole and BTC’s behavior in particular.
ATM I don’t expect ADA to drop below 0.3 USD, but as you can see there are a lot of imbalances (green boxes) below 0.3 USD. So, a wick below 0.3 USD is possible, if not likely.
Fun Fact: the previous cycle, bottom to bottom to ADA 70 days. If this cycle is similar the bottom is not far.
NFA
Would appreciate your feedback.
Best wishes to all.
ATM it is not clear if ADA will hold the channel support or fail. To be honest, much depends on BTC which is at resistance. Therefore, I have two scenarios, along and a short.
Long Scenario:
If ADA manages to find support above the 4HR EMA and above 0.3755 USD which is the local resistance.
Entry: 0.376
SL: Below channel support at approximately 0.362.
TP1: 0.42 (previous resistance).
TP2: 0.4579 (previous resistance).
TP3: 0.4728 (0.786 fib target).
Be aware that currently ADA is below the 50 EMA on the 4HR and the Daily.
Short Scenario:
Considering that ADA may lose channel support and that BTC is also below the 50EMA on the 4HR and the daily, this scenario is more likely IMO.
Entry: after a break and retest of the channel support at approximately 0.365
SL: above channel support and the 4HR EMA at 0.372
TP: at around 0.3 USD.
You will have to manage this short because much depends on the behavior of the market as a whole and BTC’s behavior in particular.
ATM I don’t expect ADA to drop below 0.3 USD, but as you can see there are a lot of imbalances (green boxes) below 0.3 USD. So, a wick below 0.3 USD is possible, if not likely.
Fun Fact: the previous cycle, bottom to bottom to ADA 70 days. If this cycle is similar the bottom is not far.
NFA
Would appreciate your feedback.
Best wishes to all.
Note
ATM, it looks as if ADA lost the trendline. However, the 200 D EMA is at 0.35 cents and provides some support.If ADA losses the 200 D EMA it can find support at 0.33 cents and at 0.3 cents. Hopefully ADA will not go lower than that.
Cheers
Note
ADA’s price is slowly dropping from the trendline. However, demand is resilient, and ADA is not falling apart. I think it is a good signal for a future price increase.
I am thinking that 30 cents is a bit too optimistic. However, I am confident that ADA will reach the 33-cent level and maybe find support there.
I will update setup but, don’t sleep on ADA.
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