ADA/USD up to 1.25 then down to 1.18 - Mostly Sideways

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Yesterday's ADA/USD forecast was for a drop to the 1.15 region and possibly to 1.11. ADA dropped to 1.16 but did not fall further before returning to the 1.20 region on BTC's rally. ADA/USD ended the day up 3.8% while BTC was up 3.7%, showing that ADA is currently behaving like a piece of paper blown around a narrow alley by the winds of BTC.

Indicators continue to be mixed and volume very low. While there was upward pressure in several timeframe, it has not resulted in any significant upward price action. The momentum is simply too low, despite the pressure, so prices remain firmly in the established channel.

Today we have a new 2-day candle in addition to the daily/intraday candles. Let's see what the indicators forecast:

Intraday/Daily
Summary: Sideways on mixed signals with the first 12H up near 1.25 region, while the 1D indicating a drop to 1.18 basis

  • 3H - All indicators just above 50 and flat. White EMA may cross below 50, starting downward momentum, but otherwise sideways just above the yellow basis line (1.22)
  • 6H - All indicators above 50 and slightly rising. The LSMA and RSI near level 50 limits upward movement. Green EMA is below white EMA, thus higher highs are not likely. Upward movement to 1.23 or 1.25 likely
  • 12H - Green EMA is rising sharply and well above white EMA and RSI, suggesting a possible higher high, but with LSMA and RSI still low and fairly flat, rally may be limited to upper aqua to upper orange B-bands (1.23 to 1.25). A spike higher is possible, however.
  • 1D - Green EMA has sharply crossed below LSMA, RSI, and level 50. White EMA is below 50 and also descending sharply. This suggests that prices may be heading to the yellow basis line at 1.177, and will be likely if the daily candle closes with the green EMA below 50. A rally during the day could change this by the end of the day, but if the candle closes similar to current levels, prices could move towards the lower white B-band in the next day (1.13 region)


Multiday (next 3 days)
Summary: Most indicators suggest sideways action around 1.20 or 1.25 with slight bias downward

snapshot

  • 2D (next 2 days) - The green EMA has come up with rebound in prices in the brand-new candle, but the last candle closed with the green EMA below the RSI, indicating downward momentum. With the RSI and LSMA flat on either side of the level 50 basis, there is slightly more upward momentum than down, but mostly sideways. Prices could creap up to 1.25, but likely sideways around the 1.20 level
  • 3D (next 1 day) - Green EMA has crossed below descending LSMA and RSI while white EMA is at level 50, indicating momentumm has now turned downward, but not strongly. Given the close proximity of the indicators to the level 50 basis, prices are likely to remain sideways between 1.15 and 1.25, most likely around 1.20 region
  • 4D (next 2 days) - Like the 3D, green EMA has crossed below the red RSI, indicating the start of downward momentum, but with LSMA and RSI still high in the 70s, prices are likely to stay near the upper white B-band. 1.30 or a bit above is possible on a rally, but most likely to remain around 1.20 or 1.25
  • 5D (next 2 days) - The 5D contradicts the 4D showing upward momentum with the green EMA crossing above the red RSI while the white EMA is at level 50. Bollinger bands are narrowing slightly, but there is still a chance to head higher on a rally to 1.30 or above.


Weekly (next 3 days)
No significant change. RSI, LSMA, and green EMA are all continuing their descent towards level 50 basis, showing decreasing upward momentum. The white EMA is still well under 50 with downward momentum flattening out. There is slightly more upward momentum than down, but likely not enough for any real test of the current channel without an event or larger move in the boarder market. Prices will likely remain between the upper white and aqua B-Bands (1.11 to 1.38), and most likely towards the middle of that range or a bit lower.

With many multi-day candles closing this weekend, and a new weekly candle at the end of the weekend, we will have to be patient.

Good luck and good fortune!

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