ADA/USD April 17 - 1.32 likely, else sideways around 1.44
Yesterday's forecast called for ADA run up to the 1.53 fib, but indicators were not clear on whether this would then result in a breakout, or trigger a retracement. As we saw, after hitting 1.52, ADA started a 14% retracement. Since hitting 1.33, prices have rebounded to narrow region under the 1.44 fib but above 1.40.
It would have been easy to dismiss the possibility of retracement in my TA the past two days because most charts were suggesting continued upward pressure or even a potential breakout. I'm glad that I highlighted that risk. Hopefully some of you were able to use the awareness of a correction risk to make some good trades and increase your ADA holdings.
I will go through the expected price action for the next few days (looking to be volatile, then sideways), but first let's look at the retracement, because there may be another wave today.
Risk of Continued Retracement & Buy Zones
Summary: Price drop to 1.32 area likely today, presenting buying opportunities
The 12H candle closed with the red RSI below 80 and the green EMA below 50. This makes a price drop to the yellow basis line (1.32) likely in the current candle. Note that the basis line is not an exact target, nor is this a certainty, but highly likely. Prices should reach the area close to the basis line. but may remain for long.
In the new 1D, white EMA has dropped below level 50 to level 25 while green EMA has sharply dropped below the RSI. LSMA is flat and RSI is trending down but still very high at 95. Aside from a drop to the 1.32 region, prices may tend to stay near 1.40, which has shown to be an important level.
In the new 2D, green EMA has not crossed below the RSI, thus it is not likely that downward momentum may not continue beyond today.
Buying zone: 1.25 to 1.35 with 1.33 a likely bottom.
Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Strong chance of drop to 1.32 area, expect volatility and prices to stay under 1.44 in general with 1.40 being a common level.
3H - Day will start with prices around 1.42 but could to go much lower. The green EMA is starting to cross below 50, well below the white EMA, which often leads to lower lows. LSMA is starting to trend down, which would expand the B-Bands to allow for wide price ranges. The RSI, which is low but rising, may limit depth of price changes in first one or two 3H candles of the day
6H - With green EMA crossing above 50 and above the RSI, and the white EMA almost at 50, prices could trend up to higher highs. Downward mometum in the 3H could reverse that pattern. Prices will be challenged to go higher than the 1.44 fib in the beginning of the day.
12H - As discussed above
1D - As discussed above
Multiday (rest of this week)
Summary: Upward momentum has stalled, prices likely sideways in general between 1.40 and 1.50, with 1.40 and 1.44 levels being common.
2D (new/2days left) - Prices likely to stay between upper aqua and orange B-bands with a bias towards the upper aqua, probably in a region between 1.40 and 1.45. Upward momentum has slowed considerably as green and white EMA both trend down from their peaks, while RSI flattens out and LSMA remains low.
3D (2 days left) - Prices likely to be sideways with upward bias between upper aqua and orange B-Bands as green EMA descends and white EMA is flat. RSI still rising, which will help push up prices a bit. 1.39 to 1.50 range, but around 1.44 fib
4D (2 days left) - Almost identical levels and indicator pattern to the 3D chart
5D (4 days left) - Prices likely to be sideways with an upward bias similar to 3D, 4D charts. Indicators at higher levels suggest prices could trend up to test the 1.53 fib
Good luck and good fortune!
It would have been easy to dismiss the possibility of retracement in my TA the past two days because most charts were suggesting continued upward pressure or even a potential breakout. I'm glad that I highlighted that risk. Hopefully some of you were able to use the awareness of a correction risk to make some good trades and increase your ADA holdings.
I will go through the expected price action for the next few days (looking to be volatile, then sideways), but first let's look at the retracement, because there may be another wave today.
Risk of Continued Retracement & Buy Zones
Summary: Price drop to 1.32 area likely today, presenting buying opportunities
The 12H candle closed with the red RSI below 80 and the green EMA below 50. This makes a price drop to the yellow basis line (1.32) likely in the current candle. Note that the basis line is not an exact target, nor is this a certainty, but highly likely. Prices should reach the area close to the basis line. but may remain for long.
In the new 1D, white EMA has dropped below level 50 to level 25 while green EMA has sharply dropped below the RSI. LSMA is flat and RSI is trending down but still very high at 95. Aside from a drop to the 1.32 region, prices may tend to stay near 1.40, which has shown to be an important level.
In the new 2D, green EMA has not crossed below the RSI, thus it is not likely that downward momentum may not continue beyond today.
Buying zone: 1.25 to 1.35 with 1.33 a likely bottom.
Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Strong chance of drop to 1.32 area, expect volatility and prices to stay under 1.44 in general with 1.40 being a common level.
3H - Day will start with prices around 1.42 but could to go much lower. The green EMA is starting to cross below 50, well below the white EMA, which often leads to lower lows. LSMA is starting to trend down, which would expand the B-Bands to allow for wide price ranges. The RSI, which is low but rising, may limit depth of price changes in first one or two 3H candles of the day
6H - With green EMA crossing above 50 and above the RSI, and the white EMA almost at 50, prices could trend up to higher highs. Downward mometum in the 3H could reverse that pattern. Prices will be challenged to go higher than the 1.44 fib in the beginning of the day.
12H - As discussed above
1D - As discussed above
Multiday (rest of this week)
Summary: Upward momentum has stalled, prices likely sideways in general between 1.40 and 1.50, with 1.40 and 1.44 levels being common.
2D (new/2days left) - Prices likely to stay between upper aqua and orange B-bands with a bias towards the upper aqua, probably in a region between 1.40 and 1.45. Upward momentum has slowed considerably as green and white EMA both trend down from their peaks, while RSI flattens out and LSMA remains low.
3D (2 days left) - Prices likely to be sideways with upward bias between upper aqua and orange B-Bands as green EMA descends and white EMA is flat. RSI still rising, which will help push up prices a bit. 1.39 to 1.50 range, but around 1.44 fib
4D (2 days left) - Almost identical levels and indicator pattern to the 3D chart
5D (4 days left) - Prices likely to be sideways with an upward bias similar to 3D, 4D charts. Indicators at higher levels suggest prices could trend up to test the 1.53 fib
Good luck and good fortune!
Note
Quick update on today's price action: Prices started the day up to nearly 1.46 before consolidating down to 1.35. With continued downward momentum, prices have pressure to go lower, but may not reach 1.32. The 12H chart closed with the green EMA slightly below level 50 and it has remained mostly sideways. Meanwhile, the yellow basis line comes up slightly with each new 12H candle. The region around 1.35 could be as low as we see in the remainder of this trading day.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.