Cardano / TetherUSUpdated ADA/USD April 16 - 1.53 test, 1.60+ if broken, retrace risk
As forecast, yesterday prices remained largely sideways around the 1.45 level. There was no drop below 1.40, and no rally to test the 1.53 fib.
Today may see a challenge to the 1.53 resistance level, and possible breakout which could carry prices to 1.60+, but a rejection seems more likely and could trigger a retracement.
Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Probable retest of the 1.53 resistance level, breakthrough possible later in day if 1.53 resistance weak. Price target of 1.60 if breakthrough. Risk of retracement has also increased.
3H - Green EMA, RSI, are at level 80 and rising. The green EMA is touching the red RSI - turning to slight upward pressure. The white EMA has dropped to level 50. There could be enough upward momentum for a test of the 1.53 resistance level, but it is unlikely to break through to a new ATH given the almost netural momentum. Prices should remain upper white to aqua B-bands (1.48 to 1.51)
6H - Green EMA is high and rising slightly, RSI is rising but under 50, and LSMA is flat. White EMA is lower than white and may be leveling off. Prices likely to continue in the upper white to upper aqua B-band channel (1.47 to 1.52) and may test the 1.53 level, but may not have enough mometum to break through, instead rebounding.
12H - Green EMA has crossed above the red RSI, indicating a return to upward momentum, while the white EMA has nearly come up to level 50. In the first 12 hours prices may not go higher than the 1.53 level, but if the trend continues and white EMA crosses above level 50, there may be enough mometum to break 1.53, in which case 1.60 would be the next target level (top of the current upper orange B-band). Price action in the current candle will indicate whether a breakthrough or rejection/retracement occurs.
1D - Risk increases of a retracement (see next section), but green EMA and RSI are very high still, and there is still quite a bit of momentum in the white EMA. The next 24 hours may decide if prices break through to higher ATH, remain sideways, or start a retracement.
2-3 Day Deeper Correction RISK Continues
First mentioned in my analysis yesterday, the 1D shows increased risk of a retracement that could reach the 1.30 region. The green EMA has started trending downward while the RSI is near the top, and the white EMA has continued its descent to below level 50. Given the 30% rally in the past week, a retracement would not be unusual.
This should still only be considered a possibility, but a risk to be kept in mind. The broarder upward momentum of ADA and altcoins is quite strong and may mitigate this risk. By the end of today's trading day, the risk should be clearer.
Multiday (rest of this week)
Summary: Price action depends on whether 1.53 is broken in next 24-48 hours. If broken, prices could go to 1.66+ but consolidate around 1.60. If not, sideways in the 1.44 to 1.53 region.
2D through 5D charts show consistent pattern (thus strong signal) of green EMA well above white EMA, white EMA above level 50 - which means likelihood of higher highs.
2D, 3D - RSI and LSMA rising suggest higher prices as B-bands are likely to expand and prices to move to higher B-band levels. If no retracement, there is a 60% chance of a breakout and new ATH, breakout prices could rise to 1.66+, but settle around the 1.60 fib.
4D, 5D - Green EMA is above other indicators, suggesting upward momentum, but levels are not nearly as high as the shorter timeframes and their trajectory flat or flattening. This suggests that a breakout above 1.53 may not occur, or if it did, prices may wick to 1.60 region, then fall back to the 1.53 region. If no breakout, then prices may remain sideways between 1.44 and 1.53.
6D (3 days left) - Trend remains intact for prices to potentially breakout to as high as $2.00 in the next candle (starting in 3 days). White EMA is now at 64. This candle will need to close with white EMA above 50 and as high as possile for a major leg up to occur by May 1.
Good luck and good fortune!
Today may see a challenge to the 1.53 resistance level, and possible breakout which could carry prices to 1.60+, but a rejection seems more likely and could trigger a retracement.
Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Probable retest of the 1.53 resistance level, breakthrough possible later in day if 1.53 resistance weak. Price target of 1.60 if breakthrough. Risk of retracement has also increased.
3H - Green EMA, RSI, are at level 80 and rising. The green EMA is touching the red RSI - turning to slight upward pressure. The white EMA has dropped to level 50. There could be enough upward momentum for a test of the 1.53 resistance level, but it is unlikely to break through to a new ATH given the almost netural momentum. Prices should remain upper white to aqua B-bands (1.48 to 1.51)
6H - Green EMA is high and rising slightly, RSI is rising but under 50, and LSMA is flat. White EMA is lower than white and may be leveling off. Prices likely to continue in the upper white to upper aqua B-band channel (1.47 to 1.52) and may test the 1.53 level, but may not have enough mometum to break through, instead rebounding.
12H - Green EMA has crossed above the red RSI, indicating a return to upward momentum, while the white EMA has nearly come up to level 50. In the first 12 hours prices may not go higher than the 1.53 level, but if the trend continues and white EMA crosses above level 50, there may be enough mometum to break 1.53, in which case 1.60 would be the next target level (top of the current upper orange B-band). Price action in the current candle will indicate whether a breakthrough or rejection/retracement occurs.
1D - Risk increases of a retracement (see next section), but green EMA and RSI are very high still, and there is still quite a bit of momentum in the white EMA. The next 24 hours may decide if prices break through to higher ATH, remain sideways, or start a retracement.
2-3 Day Deeper Correction RISK Continues
First mentioned in my analysis yesterday, the 1D shows increased risk of a retracement that could reach the 1.30 region. The green EMA has started trending downward while the RSI is near the top, and the white EMA has continued its descent to below level 50. Given the 30% rally in the past week, a retracement would not be unusual.
This should still only be considered a possibility, but a risk to be kept in mind. The broarder upward momentum of ADA and altcoins is quite strong and may mitigate this risk. By the end of today's trading day, the risk should be clearer.
Multiday (rest of this week)
Summary: Price action depends on whether 1.53 is broken in next 24-48 hours. If broken, prices could go to 1.66+ but consolidate around 1.60. If not, sideways in the 1.44 to 1.53 region.
2D through 5D charts show consistent pattern (thus strong signal) of green EMA well above white EMA, white EMA above level 50 - which means likelihood of higher highs.
2D, 3D - RSI and LSMA rising suggest higher prices as B-bands are likely to expand and prices to move to higher B-band levels. If no retracement, there is a 60% chance of a breakout and new ATH, breakout prices could rise to 1.66+, but settle around the 1.60 fib.
4D, 5D - Green EMA is above other indicators, suggesting upward momentum, but levels are not nearly as high as the shorter timeframes and their trajectory flat or flattening. This suggests that a breakout above 1.53 may not occur, or if it did, prices may wick to 1.60 region, then fall back to the 1.53 region. If no breakout, then prices may remain sideways between 1.44 and 1.53.
6D (3 days left) - Trend remains intact for prices to potentially breakout to as high as $2.00 in the next candle (starting in 3 days). White EMA is now at 64. This candle will need to close with white EMA above 50 and as high as possile for a major leg up to occur by May 1.
Good luck and good fortune!
Note
Retracement update: Shortly after the trading day started, ADA reach 1.52 before being swiftly rejected and kicking off a retracement down to the 1.40 region (at the time of this update). A new 6H candle shows the green EMA below level 50 and descending rapidly. If the candle closes at these levels, prices are likely to go to the yellow basis at 1.38. This puts in play a wick to the top of the prior price channel in the 1.35 area. Sustained downward momentum could send prices lower, but that is not clear in the indicators yet.Note
Another Retracement Update: Today's ADA retracement reached 1.35 just a bit ago, rebounding to 1.40.Looking at the new mid-day charts, indicators in all timeframes are still pointing down with momentum to return to 1.35 and probably lower. In the new 12-hour chart the green EMA has dropped to just above level 50 while the red RSI is below 80. Odds are good that prices will drop to the yellow basis line (1.31) and potentially as low as 1.20 (lower white B-band) if the candle closes with the green EMA at/below level 50.
For ADA/USD to reach the $3 price target in early May, 1.25 needs to be maintained. A wick below 1.25 would not derail the price target, but if the daily candle were to close below 1.25, it would be in jeopardy.
Note
Retracement update 3: Just over 5 hours remain in the trading day. ADA did drop briefly to 1.33 before rebounding. Prices have favored the 1.40 region and have had difficulty going higher than the 1.44 fib. It is possible that we have seen the bottom of this retracement, but the 12H chart (5 hours remain) is on track to meet the conditions for a likely drop to the yellow basis line in the next 12H candle. For this to happen, RSI must be less than 80 (currently 78) and the green EMA must be less than 50 (currently 48) when the candle closes. The yellow basis line looks like it will be around 1.32 in the next candle. There are still 5 x 1-hour candles left in this one 12-hour candle. With levels this close to the key levels, a rally could invalidate this occurring, but the odds seem to favor meeting the conditions when the candle closes.
In my daily update I will talk about this and the 1D chart, where the retracement scenario like late November 2020 appears to be playing out.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.