ADA/USD April 15 - Sideways mostly, but RISK of deeper drop soon
Yesterday was an exciting day for ADA, with a major rally thanks to new BTC ATH, the Coinbase listing, BTC dominance falling below 55%, and other excitement.
First, my forecast for yesterday was:
1) Possible dip to the 1.34 support level (retest)
2) Possible test of the 1.47/1.50 resistance level (not likely to be broken)
Although it was close, my forecast was incorrect. ADA wicked above the 1.50 resistance level briefly to establish a new ATH at 1.54 A few hours later ADA retraced to 1.35 before rebounding and then moving sideways between 1.40 and the 1.44 fib.
The new ATH was surprising given the low volumes and strong resistance I expected around 1.50. Although there was no breakout above the 1.53 resistance level, a new ATH suggests that resistance may not be as strong as anticipated. If so, the next leg up could allow for a clean break above and rise quickly towards 1.96/2.00.
Today there are new candles for several multi-day timeframes, in addition to the intraday. Mostly prices look to stay in the 1.45 region, but a risk of a deeper correction looms in the next couple of days before another attempt at a new ATH.
Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Prices likely to remain around 1.45, but could see price swings. Rally to 1.53 resistance possible, but no breakout likely. Risk of drop to 1.35.
3H - Green EMA crossed above RSI, but is dropping sharply along with RSI and LSMA, indicating upward pressure nearing crossover to downward pressure. White EMA has come up close to level 50. Prices likely to stay under the upper white B-band (1.46) but may drop to/below yellow basis (1.40) in next candle, or may move sideways
6H - White EMA very low but rising. Green EMA rebounding near level 50 below RSI while RSI and LSMA diverge. Downward momentum will continue but the rising green above white and white at only 17 will limit upward momentum to under 1.47 region but above 1.40 unless green reverses and crosses below 50, which would bring prices to the 1.35 region again.
12H - Green EMA has crossed below RSI, indicating downward momentum, while white EMA has crossed below 50 and is descending. With RSI, LSMA, and green EMA still high, prices should remain between upper aqua and upper orange B-bands, with a bias towards the upper aqua (1.43). A rally to the 1.53 fib is possible, but the region of 1.40 is more likely.
1D - Green EMA has started to descend, but is still above a descending white EMA, which should keep prices high. With RSI and LSMA high and steeply ascending, B-bands could expand and prices couild again challenge the 1.53 fib or 1.54 ATH. This is also a setup at risk of a significant correction that could bring prices to/below the yellow basis line (1.25 region)
2-3 Day Deeper Correction RISK
In the current 1D chart (see chart at top of this post), there is a setup where the green EMA could drop sharply along with the drop in white EMA, despite the rapidly rising RSI and LSMA. Looking back at November 23-25, 2020, prices had risen rapidly to a new ATH followed by a retracement the next day before a much deeper retracement the following day that reached the yellow basis line.
While the percentages of the November leg up/retracement are much greater that the rally ADA just experienced, the indicator pattern is very similar. If a similar pattern were to play out in the next 2-3 days, prices could fall to 1.25 to 1.20 (current daily 50 MA, and lower white B-band of 6 day chart) before rebounding.
Multiday (rest of this week)
Summary: Potential test of 1.53 fib/1.54 ATH, but mainly in 1.40 to 1.50 region. Breakout to new ATH possible, but not likely yet.
2D (new/2 days left) - Green very high and above high white EMA showing strong upward momentum. LSMA is still low at 59 but increasing, which will expand the B-Bands. RSI is also rising sharply at just under level 80. This suggests that prices should stay in upper aqua to upper orange B-Bands (1.40 to 1.50), but a short-term reversal is possible.
4D (new/4 days left) - Green EMA, LSMA, and RSI are flat. White EMA is rising and under green. Prices could retest the 1.53 fib and ATH, but are likely to generally move sideways between 1.36 and 1.52, unless a deeper correction occurs
6D (4 days left) - Green EMA is still above RSI. RSI is starting to reverse to the upside. White EMA is above 50 is at 64. This indicates higher highs on upward momentum. Because white EMA is still low there may not be enough upward momentum yet for prices to move above the resistance level at the upper aqua B-Band (currently 1.53), but prices could start moving above into the upper aqua to upper orange B-band range (1.53 to 1.96) on a breakout above the 1.53. If so, prices could rally to 1.60 fib or 1.72 fib. Any correction could temporarily return prices to the upper white B-band region (1.25-1.30)
Note that I have revised my fib levels to fib extensions (from fib retracement) now that we appear to have reversed from the consolidation of the past six weeks. There are slight differences from previous levels. I will be using those levels in this idea and others I post in the next couple of weeks.
Good luck and good fortune!
First, my forecast for yesterday was:
1) Possible dip to the 1.34 support level (retest)
2) Possible test of the 1.47/1.50 resistance level (not likely to be broken)
Although it was close, my forecast was incorrect. ADA wicked above the 1.50 resistance level briefly to establish a new ATH at 1.54 A few hours later ADA retraced to 1.35 before rebounding and then moving sideways between 1.40 and the 1.44 fib.
The new ATH was surprising given the low volumes and strong resistance I expected around 1.50. Although there was no breakout above the 1.53 resistance level, a new ATH suggests that resistance may not be as strong as anticipated. If so, the next leg up could allow for a clean break above and rise quickly towards 1.96/2.00.
Today there are new candles for several multi-day timeframes, in addition to the intraday. Mostly prices look to stay in the 1.45 region, but a risk of a deeper correction looms in the next couple of days before another attempt at a new ATH.
Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Prices likely to remain around 1.45, but could see price swings. Rally to 1.53 resistance possible, but no breakout likely. Risk of drop to 1.35.
3H - Green EMA crossed above RSI, but is dropping sharply along with RSI and LSMA, indicating upward pressure nearing crossover to downward pressure. White EMA has come up close to level 50. Prices likely to stay under the upper white B-band (1.46) but may drop to/below yellow basis (1.40) in next candle, or may move sideways
6H - White EMA very low but rising. Green EMA rebounding near level 50 below RSI while RSI and LSMA diverge. Downward momentum will continue but the rising green above white and white at only 17 will limit upward momentum to under 1.47 region but above 1.40 unless green reverses and crosses below 50, which would bring prices to the 1.35 region again.
12H - Green EMA has crossed below RSI, indicating downward momentum, while white EMA has crossed below 50 and is descending. With RSI, LSMA, and green EMA still high, prices should remain between upper aqua and upper orange B-bands, with a bias towards the upper aqua (1.43). A rally to the 1.53 fib is possible, but the region of 1.40 is more likely.
1D - Green EMA has started to descend, but is still above a descending white EMA, which should keep prices high. With RSI and LSMA high and steeply ascending, B-bands could expand and prices couild again challenge the 1.53 fib or 1.54 ATH. This is also a setup at risk of a significant correction that could bring prices to/below the yellow basis line (1.25 region)
2-3 Day Deeper Correction RISK
In the current 1D chart (see chart at top of this post), there is a setup where the green EMA could drop sharply along with the drop in white EMA, despite the rapidly rising RSI and LSMA. Looking back at November 23-25, 2020, prices had risen rapidly to a new ATH followed by a retracement the next day before a much deeper retracement the following day that reached the yellow basis line.
While the percentages of the November leg up/retracement are much greater that the rally ADA just experienced, the indicator pattern is very similar. If a similar pattern were to play out in the next 2-3 days, prices could fall to 1.25 to 1.20 (current daily 50 MA, and lower white B-band of 6 day chart) before rebounding.
Multiday (rest of this week)
Summary: Potential test of 1.53 fib/1.54 ATH, but mainly in 1.40 to 1.50 region. Breakout to new ATH possible, but not likely yet.
2D (new/2 days left) - Green very high and above high white EMA showing strong upward momentum. LSMA is still low at 59 but increasing, which will expand the B-Bands. RSI is also rising sharply at just under level 80. This suggests that prices should stay in upper aqua to upper orange B-Bands (1.40 to 1.50), but a short-term reversal is possible.
4D (new/4 days left) - Green EMA, LSMA, and RSI are flat. White EMA is rising and under green. Prices could retest the 1.53 fib and ATH, but are likely to generally move sideways between 1.36 and 1.52, unless a deeper correction occurs
6D (4 days left) - Green EMA is still above RSI. RSI is starting to reverse to the upside. White EMA is above 50 is at 64. This indicates higher highs on upward momentum. Because white EMA is still low there may not be enough upward momentum yet for prices to move above the resistance level at the upper aqua B-Band (currently 1.53), but prices could start moving above into the upper aqua to upper orange B-band range (1.53 to 1.96) on a breakout above the 1.53. If so, prices could rally to 1.60 fib or 1.72 fib. Any correction could temporarily return prices to the upper white B-band region (1.25-1.30)
Note that I have revised my fib levels to fib extensions (from fib retracement) now that we appear to have reversed from the consolidation of the past six weeks. There are slight differences from previous levels. I will be using those levels in this idea and others I post in the next couple of weeks.
Good luck and good fortune!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.