ADA/USD - Risky Bull Pattern, 1.77 possible or 1.50 retracement
Hello friends!
This next week will be especially busy for me, but with exciting ADA action taking place, I will try post as many updates as I can.
Yesterday ADA doubled-down on the previous day's gains and rallied to a new ATH of 1.70. In my forecast yesterday I expected a test of 1.53 or the previous ATH of 1.56, but I did not expect a new ATH. Indicators supported the possibility of a new ATH, but the probability was very low (<4%). The rally came without any major news and far exceeded BTC's price action for the day. It appears that many people were caught off guard by this move. This is why it is very important to manage your risk and use methods like DCA. Crypto is highly volatile. No matter how good the analysis, prices can go anywhere possible, no matter the probabilities. After a long period of sideways action, traders should be prepared for considerable volatility in the coming weeks.
Today's price action could be quite volatile. First, prices are at an improbable level that risks significant retracement. Second, today BTC options expire. Generally, BTC falls on options expiration days, bringing down prices across the market. ADA would have to show great strength to overcome consolidation in the market and stay at improbable levels (or go higher). Although this is possible, retracement is the most likely scenario with prices returning to sub-1.50 levels in the next 24-48 hours. Signals remain mixed, and caution is advised.
Intraday (Today)
Summary: 1.70 likely to be the top (upper orange B-band) as upward momentum slows. Lower timeframes suggest sideways (12H is flat) or downward price action (6H and lower). A breakthrough of 1.70 would likely send prices to 1.77+, while another rejection and broader downward momentum could trigger a retracement to the 1.50 level.
Multi-day (next 4 days)
Summary: Bullish signals are counterbalanced by prices at an unlikely level. Caution is advised. Prices could hold or attempt a new ATH around the 1.77 fib, but probability says that prices should be in the range of 1.50, and may return to those levels. Volatility should be expected.
2D - (2d left) All indicators rising and green EMA above white EMA, suggesting more upward momentum and potential for higher highs to 1.77 unless retracement occurs
3D - (3d left) RSI and LSMA are rising but still low at 66 and 55. Green EMA is below white EMA and both are tapering off. Another rally to 1.77 is possible, but not probable given the low RSI and LSMA levels. Prices could return to the 1.50 region (upper aqua B-band) if upward momentum exhausts.
4D - (2d left) Bullish with the green EMA well above the white EMA. Prices are currently higher than probable with the LSMA and RSI just above level 50 and white EMA under level 80. This unlikely pattern shows notable risk of a retracement to under the aqua B-band (1.46) and possibly lower (1.40) as the indicators currently would suggest prices in those range, not as high as current prices (>1.65)
5D - (4d left) Bullish with the green EMA well above the white EMA. However, prices are likely to be in a range of the middle between the upper white and aqua and the middle of the upper aqua and orange. This is because the white EMA is still quite low, despite being above level 50, and the LSMA and RSI are flat below level 80. Price range is likely between 1.44 and 1.70, with a possible wick below 1.40
Good luck and good fortune!
This next week will be especially busy for me, but with exciting ADA action taking place, I will try post as many updates as I can.
Yesterday ADA doubled-down on the previous day's gains and rallied to a new ATH of 1.70. In my forecast yesterday I expected a test of 1.53 or the previous ATH of 1.56, but I did not expect a new ATH. Indicators supported the possibility of a new ATH, but the probability was very low (<4%). The rally came without any major news and far exceeded BTC's price action for the day. It appears that many people were caught off guard by this move. This is why it is very important to manage your risk and use methods like DCA. Crypto is highly volatile. No matter how good the analysis, prices can go anywhere possible, no matter the probabilities. After a long period of sideways action, traders should be prepared for considerable volatility in the coming weeks.
Today's price action could be quite volatile. First, prices are at an improbable level that risks significant retracement. Second, today BTC options expire. Generally, BTC falls on options expiration days, bringing down prices across the market. ADA would have to show great strength to overcome consolidation in the market and stay at improbable levels (or go higher). Although this is possible, retracement is the most likely scenario with prices returning to sub-1.50 levels in the next 24-48 hours. Signals remain mixed, and caution is advised.
Intraday (Today)
Summary: 1.70 likely to be the top (upper orange B-band) as upward momentum slows. Lower timeframes suggest sideways (12H is flat) or downward price action (6H and lower). A breakthrough of 1.70 would likely send prices to 1.77+, while another rejection and broader downward momentum could trigger a retracement to the 1.50 level.
Multi-day (next 4 days)
Summary: Bullish signals are counterbalanced by prices at an unlikely level. Caution is advised. Prices could hold or attempt a new ATH around the 1.77 fib, but probability says that prices should be in the range of 1.50, and may return to those levels. Volatility should be expected.
2D - (2d left) All indicators rising and green EMA above white EMA, suggesting more upward momentum and potential for higher highs to 1.77 unless retracement occurs
3D - (3d left) RSI and LSMA are rising but still low at 66 and 55. Green EMA is below white EMA and both are tapering off. Another rally to 1.77 is possible, but not probable given the low RSI and LSMA levels. Prices could return to the 1.50 region (upper aqua B-band) if upward momentum exhausts.
4D - (2d left) Bullish with the green EMA well above the white EMA. Prices are currently higher than probable with the LSMA and RSI just above level 50 and white EMA under level 80. This unlikely pattern shows notable risk of a retracement to under the aqua B-band (1.46) and possibly lower (1.40) as the indicators currently would suggest prices in those range, not as high as current prices (>1.65)
5D - (4d left) Bullish with the green EMA well above the white EMA. However, prices are likely to be in a range of the middle between the upper white and aqua and the middle of the upper aqua and orange. This is because the white EMA is still quite low, despite being above level 50, and the LSMA and RSI are flat below level 80. Price range is likely between 1.44 and 1.70, with a possible wick below 1.40
Good luck and good fortune!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.