Will SPX Break Higher or Fade Lower?
🚀 Will SPX Break Higher or Fade Lower?
📌 TLDR – The Market’s Next Move Hangs in the Balance
Wednesday played out just as we discussed in the Fast Forward Group call – a challenge of the inside bar high, followed by a sell-off leading into the FOMC spectacle. Now, we’re seeing a similar inside bar on the daily chart, meaning today's session could repeat the same pattern: a challenge of the prior day’s high, followed by a dip.
I'm expecting a short-term bearish move, but the longer-term trend remains bullish.
ADD isn’t giving us a strong directional clue, but it's hovering at a relative low, suggesting a potential pop higher before any downside unfolds. Futures are already up overnight, so a gap higher on the open would align with expectations.
The SPX Income Swing is live as per the Tag 'n Turn setup, and the bear hedge is clearly marked should price tip over.
⏳ The Market’s Tug of War: Which Way Will It Break?
Wednesday Review:
SPX followed expectations – a challenge of the inside bar high, followed by a sell-off into the FOMC decision.
The inside bar setup remains in play today, meaning we could see a similar push-and-fade before any clear direction emerges.
Current Market Setup:
Short-term bearish bias, but longer-term bullish structure remains intact.
ADD levels at relative extremes – currently at a low, suggesting a pop higher before a potential fade.
Futures are slightly up overnight, so a gap higher at the open could fulfill the expected move.
Trade Plan for Today:
Bullish income swing trade is open and tracking with the SPX Tag 'n Turn setup.
Bear hedge remains intact in case the market rolls over.
Watching for a break above the inside bar high, followed by potential weakness later in the session.
For now, it’s about staying nimble and reacting to price action rather than forcing trades. Let’s see how this plays out!
📊 Fun Fact: The FOMC’s Sneaky Pattern
Did you know that in over 60% of FOMC meeting days, the initial market reaction is reversed within 48 hours? It’s like a financial bait-and-switch, where the market feigns one direction only to rug-pull traders the next day.
Why does this happen?
Traders react emotionally to Jerome Powell's comments, algorithmic trading kicks in, and short-term liquidity spikes. But once the dust settles, the market recalibrates based on actual economic data rather than FOMC posturing.
📌 TLDR – The Market’s Next Move Hangs in the Balance
Wednesday played out just as we discussed in the Fast Forward Group call – a challenge of the inside bar high, followed by a sell-off leading into the FOMC spectacle. Now, we’re seeing a similar inside bar on the daily chart, meaning today's session could repeat the same pattern: a challenge of the prior day’s high, followed by a dip.
I'm expecting a short-term bearish move, but the longer-term trend remains bullish.
ADD isn’t giving us a strong directional clue, but it's hovering at a relative low, suggesting a potential pop higher before any downside unfolds. Futures are already up overnight, so a gap higher on the open would align with expectations.The SPX Income Swing is live as per the Tag 'n Turn setup, and the bear hedge is clearly marked should price tip over.
⏳ The Market’s Tug of War: Which Way Will It Break?
Wednesday Review:
SPX followed expectations – a challenge of the inside bar high, followed by a sell-off into the FOMC decision.
The inside bar setup remains in play today, meaning we could see a similar push-and-fade before any clear direction emerges.
Current Market Setup:
Short-term bearish bias, but longer-term bullish structure remains intact.
ADD levels at relative extremes – currently at a low, suggesting a pop higher before a potential fade.Futures are slightly up overnight, so a gap higher at the open could fulfill the expected move.
Trade Plan for Today:
Bullish income swing trade is open and tracking with the SPX Tag 'n Turn setup.
Bear hedge remains intact in case the market rolls over.
Watching for a break above the inside bar high, followed by potential weakness later in the session.
For now, it’s about staying nimble and reacting to price action rather than forcing trades. Let’s see how this plays out!
📊 Fun Fact: The FOMC’s Sneaky Pattern
Did you know that in over 60% of FOMC meeting days, the initial market reaction is reversed within 48 hours? It’s like a financial bait-and-switch, where the market feigns one direction only to rug-pull traders the next day.
Why does this happen?
Traders react emotionally to Jerome Powell's comments, algorithmic trading kicks in, and short-term liquidity spikes. But once the dust settles, the market recalibrates based on actual economic data rather than FOMC posturing.
Note
For audio and video versions of this and future analysis - please read my blog at antivestor.com/blog
Full-time trader and mentor since 2001
Focusing on short term income swings with SPX options, futures and occasionally stocks.
Focusing on short term income swings with SPX options, futures and occasionally stocks.
Full-time trader and mentor since 2001
Focusing on short term income swings with SPX options, futures and occasionally stocks.
Focusing on short term income swings with SPX options, futures and occasionally stocks.
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