AMD Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16

AMD Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is a synthesis of all the reports and our analysis:

─────────────────────────────
COMPREHENSIVE SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS
─────────────────────────────

• Grok/xAI Report
– Technical indicators show AMD trading below its short‐term moving average and near the lower Bollinger Band.
– Negative MACD histogram and bearish news (export restrictions, potential $800M charge) support a downward bias.
– Recommends a bearish options trade using a near–ATM put – the $89 put at a premium around $1.78 (a higher premium but with a clear bearish thesis).

• Llama/Meta and DeepSeek Reports
– Confirm the bearish bias: price action below key moving averages, negative MACD and extreme moves below support.
– Note that the option chain (and high open interest on lower strikes) points to a greater probability for further decline.
– Both suggest a trade on put options that have a lower premium than the Grok suggestion (with DeepSeek favoring the $85 put at roughly $0.62) for improved risk/reward.

• Gemini/Google Report
– Emphasizes the strong negative catalyst from news and a rapid breakdown below support levels (with current price near $89).
– Technical indicators and volatility (VIX above 30) signal that the underlying is likely to fall further.
– Offers several put strike ideas and finds that the $84 put (premium ca. $0.49) fits the ideal price range; however, liquidity and open interest are better for the $85 strike.

─────────────────────────────
AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
─────────────────────────────

Agreements:
– All models (except for the one reporting an error) agree that the market sentiment is bearish.
– The negative news catalyst (export controls and potential charges) and the technical breakdown clearly drive the consensus.
– There is broad recognition that options data (with high OI on puts and max pain around $95)
is supportive of a downside move.

Disagreements:
– The primary difference is in the strike selection. Grok favors a put close to the current price (the $89 put) despite its higher premium, while Gemini, Llama/Meta, and DeepSeek lean toward lower strikes ($84–$85) that offer a lower premium (falling in or near our ideal range) and better liquidity for a weekly trade.

─────────────────────────────
CLEAR CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDED TRADE
─────────────────────────────

Overall Market Direction Consensus:
– The overall view is bearish. All models (apart from the one error) indicate that AMD is under significant downside pressure fueled by both technical breakdown and negative news sentiment.

Recommended Trade:
• Trade Type: BUY single‐leg, naked PUT (weekly option only)
• Chosen Strike: $85
– Rationale: The $85 put (ask at $0.64) offers good liquidity (high open interest of 10,218 contracts) and although its premium is slightly above the preferred $0.30–$0.60 range, its risk/reward profile is attractive given the bearish momentum.
• Expiration: April 17, 2025 (weekly options)
• Entry Timing: At market open
• Proposed Parameters:
– Entry Premium: Approximately $0.64
– Profit Target: Around $1.00 (this represents an attractive move if the bearish trend continues)
– Stop Loss: Approximately $0.45 to limit risk if price recovers unexpectedly
• Confidence Level: ~70%
• Key Risks and Considerations:
– Short‐term volatility may create intraday bounces despite the overall bearish trend.
– An oversold reaction or a temporary return toward the max pain level ($95) could adversely affect the trade.
– As this is a news–driven and highly volatile environment, trade size must be limited relative to account size.

─────────────────────────────
TRADE_DETAILS
─────────────────────────────

The final trade parameters in JSON format are shown below.

TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{
"instrument": "AMD",
"direction": "
put",
"strike": 85.0,
"expiry": "2025-04-17",
"confidence": 0.70,
"profit_target": 1.00,
"stop_loss": 0.45,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.64,
"entry_timing": "open"
}

quantsignals

📈 QuantDev
💰 AI-Driven Systematic Trading🔑
💻 Building QuantSignals.XYZ
⬇️ Daily Free $SPX $BTC Signals ⬇️

Also on:

Related publications

NVDA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16

by quantsignals

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

quantsignals

📈 QuantDev
💰 AI-Driven Systematic Trading🔑
💻 Building QuantSignals.XYZ
⬇️ Daily Free $SPX $BTC Signals ⬇️

Also on: