Catching a Falling Knife with AMD on the 30 minute chart
Updated
Betting on a price increase after a sharp price decrease is called "catching a falling knife". In fact, you may have heard someone say, "don't try to catch a falling knife." The analogy is meant to sound dangerous because it is very risky to buy a stock that is dropping rapidly. The hope is that if you time it right, you will get in at the bottom and make big profits. The opposite is true as well, but catching a knife thrown upward sounds like an even worse idea.
I would like to suggest that it's possible to profit from a knife-catching strategy if you manage your risk and timing properly.
In the chart for AMD, I've marked the opportunities to catch a falling (or rising) knife, which have been occurring on a daily basis for the past week.
For AMD, a price bottom has typically been forming after the price has dropped significantly over the previous day. And a top has formed after the price has risen significantly over the previous day. Sometimes it's not clear if a bottom or top has formed such as on October 25. In that case, it's a coin flip (50% chance of being right).
The key to success in this strategy is to set a tight stop loss and to buy or sell short during the pre-market (yellow-shaded area). There were at least 6 excellent opportunities last week to do this.
Unfortunately, I wasn't paying attention to AMD until the morning of Friday, October 28. I saw the opportunity and realized that there was no way my order would have a chance to go through when the market opened if the price was making a dramatic move. I bought a half hour before the market opened (9:00 AM Eastern) and set my stop loss below the low reached post-market the previous day. Once the market opened, the price was already climbing and I got out before 10:00 AM Eastern. My risk-reward ratio was 1:5. That is, I risked 1 dollar for every 5 dollars I profited. Not too shabby.
It appears that Monday is going to be another great opportunity, and I will be watching the pre-market closely. I will be setting a stop loss at 62.30 and a take profit of around 59.50. Although I will be watching for the right time to get out, which is usually when the price reverses, and I chicken out as I did on the 28th.
Monday's trade will be going against the larger trend which I believe is heading to 73 by the end of November. See the link to my longer-term analysis of AMD.
This is not a 100% fool-proof strategy, and the conditions that make this look easy can change completely and without notice. Also, the volatility can stop you out too soon. Take a look at October 22 for an example of where I would have been stopped out and lost out on the subsequent big move.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
I'd like to add that developing these analyses is a powerful educational tool for the one doing the analysis (namely me). It helps me formulate my thoughts and plan my trades so that I can make the best decisions possible. I'm training my brain to eventually do this automatically when I glance at a chart. It's a skill that I hope will benefit me for the rest of my life. I hope you enjoyed reading as much as I did writing. Give some thought to publishing your own ideas. I highly recommend it. Have a profitable week!
I would like to suggest that it's possible to profit from a knife-catching strategy if you manage your risk and timing properly.
In the chart for AMD, I've marked the opportunities to catch a falling (or rising) knife, which have been occurring on a daily basis for the past week.
For AMD, a price bottom has typically been forming after the price has dropped significantly over the previous day. And a top has formed after the price has risen significantly over the previous day. Sometimes it's not clear if a bottom or top has formed such as on October 25. In that case, it's a coin flip (50% chance of being right).
The key to success in this strategy is to set a tight stop loss and to buy or sell short during the pre-market (yellow-shaded area). There were at least 6 excellent opportunities last week to do this.
Unfortunately, I wasn't paying attention to AMD until the morning of Friday, October 28. I saw the opportunity and realized that there was no way my order would have a chance to go through when the market opened if the price was making a dramatic move. I bought a half hour before the market opened (9:00 AM Eastern) and set my stop loss below the low reached post-market the previous day. Once the market opened, the price was already climbing and I got out before 10:00 AM Eastern. My risk-reward ratio was 1:5. That is, I risked 1 dollar for every 5 dollars I profited. Not too shabby.
It appears that Monday is going to be another great opportunity, and I will be watching the pre-market closely. I will be setting a stop loss at 62.30 and a take profit of around 59.50. Although I will be watching for the right time to get out, which is usually when the price reverses, and I chicken out as I did on the 28th.
Monday's trade will be going against the larger trend which I believe is heading to 73 by the end of November. See the link to my longer-term analysis of AMD.
This is not a 100% fool-proof strategy, and the conditions that make this look easy can change completely and without notice. Also, the volatility can stop you out too soon. Take a look at October 22 for an example of where I would have been stopped out and lost out on the subsequent big move.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
I'd like to add that developing these analyses is a powerful educational tool for the one doing the analysis (namely me). It helps me formulate my thoughts and plan my trades so that I can make the best decisions possible. I'm training my brain to eventually do this automatically when I glance at a chart. It's a skill that I hope will benefit me for the rest of my life. I hope you enjoyed reading as much as I did writing. Give some thought to publishing your own ideas. I highly recommend it. Have a profitable week!
Trade closed manually
On October 31st, AMD dropped to 59.73 after the market opened according to the prediction, although it fell short of the arbitrary take profit I set on the chart. A slight wrinkle in the plan occurred pre-market when the price immediately dropped from 62.24 to 60.86. The price had actually peaked during Friday's post-market, so the opportunity to short at the peak on Monday morning was slim to none. There was still a chance to get in on 75% of the total price drop however.
It's not clear if the next set up is a top or bottom in a knife-catching scenario. It would be simple to take a guess, but also keep a tight stop loss. Since I think the medium-term larger trend is higher (see my related idea link below), I'm leaning towards an upward movement today (Tuesday November 1st).
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
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