$AMZN Flirting With Disaster or Prepping For Run??
AMZN Currently testing resistance of what I believe to be a bear flag consolidation pattern. This is a great place to get short if you want to risk a little capital, due to the ability to cut out with a small loss if it breaks above this resistance, so stop loss at 1836. If it does not break though, you get the reward of the entire move downward, which could very well be around 1585 without breaking a sweat. In this scenario, risk/reward ratio using these targets and stops allow for an 18:1 ratio. On the flip side, if it does break upward, it would run into a convergence of a couple resistance trend lines around the 1790's area. Close above 1835 would indicate that scenario. What I'm looking at is the fact that Amazon lost its daily 125 moving average support. In the past when AMZN loses the 125, but bounces around it, up and down, it generally recovers it within a few weeks and goes on an extended run. However, when it loses the 125 and CANNOT reclaim it, then there has generally been multiple rejections followed by a "bear market" scenario for Amazon, as shown in the end of 2018. I am currently going short AMZN through Aug 30th P1640 at .70. Just one single contract is plenty with Amazon, because that 70 dollar bet can easily turn into well over 1,000 dollars if the price action acts as I suspect it may. Either way, as a technical trader I will follow the trail of the price action and act accordingly. My plans are usually laid out for at least 2 scenarios, as I believe any good trader should do. Get caught with your foot stuck on the gas pedal either way and you're headed for disaster. Anyway, happy hunting and GLTA!!
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