Short

ARM: Pull-back before next leg-up

Updated

I fundamentally bullish on this company and think it might be a potential true-market leader in next market up-trend (if we see one in coming years).

Structurally speaking, I may see full first impulsive structure completed with today's burst into the top border resistance zone for the final wave (c.v of 1).

If this structure will prove to be correct, classical support area for potential correction: 61-55 area.

If price follows through to the upside and closes above todays highs, then next resistance level is: 75-81 zone. Moving above 81 will be a sign to re-consider suggested price structure.

Thank you for your attention!

Note

Entered short trade with the break under left-side pick on volume pick-up.
Average cost: 69.03

Will consider to add to shorts if price breaks 8 and latter 21 ema on volume.

Risk for the trade: 3-5%

Trade closed: stop reached

ARM went above 3 and then 5%, trading above Wednesday highs. I am stepping aside with less than 4% average to see how situation evolves.

If price pulls back and breaks 8 ema on volume in coming sessions, I may consider re-shorting it as per initial scenario.

Trade active

Shorting at break of 8/21 and left-side peak with stop at LOD

Note

Adding to shorts with stops for add-on at HOD

Trade closed: stop reached

Got stopped out with 4% loss on gap-up open 18th of Jan. Strong demand in semiconductor sector.

Was not able to quickly shift to buyable gap-up as 360d-approach to market, although all the parameters were there.

Structurally speaking, I can interpret this move as a running flat formation, where price got a little ahead of itself with overwhelming demand and still needs to correct before the bullish third wave unfolds its full potential later this year.

Until price closes bellow 80, the correction to 66-61 support zone is still possibility.

From tactical trading perspective, If one is inclined to try to short ARTM, the move bellow left-side pick at 78.66 could be considered an entry point with 2-3% stop.

Strong move above 80, would shift my interpretation of the structure to wave 2 being finished and price already is its third wave uptrend.

Trade active

Started building initial short position around recent left-side pick as per suggested structural interpretation

Stops are above 80 on close.

Note

21 ema break-down attempt could be considered as an addition (no more than 30% of current position) to shorts from 25.01.

! Caution: earnings tomorrow !

Macro-support zone: 66.20-61.5 and 58.3-55.20

Note

With earnings move on 8th of Feb., price has decisively put waves 1-2 in place as per the operative interpretation of the structure.

Until price holds and closes above 96 (0.618% of wave 1 from 2), the structure calls for continuation move towards next macro-resistance zone: 143-162, with following support area for any consolidation/correction at: 117-103 with follow-up move towards 175-200 area as the major resistance zone for the impulsive structure from Oct'23 lows.

artemfedorov

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