Right ,
Monday morning kicks off with US MKTS going on half day holiday today and tomorrow good old 4th July, Happy independence day America. This means for us trade will be fairly flat over the next couple of days .
However on this pair, Im seeing it approaching the 0.618 fib line again , now Asia session saw AUD building approvals m/m- miss considerably, but it has mixed emotions right now , as the CNY Caixan figs were on the positive side....
What does this mean, well in my opinion I feel the MKT will focus on the miss , we then have AUD retail sales m/m out Asia session Tuesday (Early hours).
Then the RBA meet after this, and the rates are expected to be kept on hold, a more upbeat rhetoric is expected like the last meet.
Thursday is where its at for the CAD as we have trade balance then Friday its the big one employment / Unemployment and of course NFP which if this is positive will force the USD to recoil against the CAD pushing the cross pairs to do the same .
Im waiting for the confluence zone around the 0.618 fib line which is - 98.80-99.30 to see what happens as the week unfolds ...
Now the scenarios are this Hawkish and upbeat comments from the RBA will send this back up and neutral/ negative CAD figs and a positive NFP will see this shoot back towards 0.786 fib line 1.01-1.0130
If the scenario goes the other way upbeat / neutral RBA, good Cad figs and a negative NFP , then expect this to lose the battle @ the 0.618 and it will trickle towards the next fib around the 0.98 zone
This will be a big week for this pair along with USD/CAD especially ...........
Stay tuned Im going to be watching like a hawk ..........
Monday morning kicks off with US MKTS going on half day holiday today and tomorrow good old 4th July, Happy independence day America. This means for us trade will be fairly flat over the next couple of days .
However on this pair, Im seeing it approaching the 0.618 fib line again , now Asia session saw AUD building approvals m/m- miss considerably, but it has mixed emotions right now , as the CNY Caixan figs were on the positive side....
What does this mean, well in my opinion I feel the MKT will focus on the miss , we then have AUD retail sales m/m out Asia session Tuesday (Early hours).
Then the RBA meet after this, and the rates are expected to be kept on hold, a more upbeat rhetoric is expected like the last meet.
Thursday is where its at for the CAD as we have trade balance then Friday its the big one employment / Unemployment and of course NFP which if this is positive will force the USD to recoil against the CAD pushing the cross pairs to do the same .
Im waiting for the confluence zone around the 0.618 fib line which is - 98.80-99.30 to see what happens as the week unfolds ...
Now the scenarios are this Hawkish and upbeat comments from the RBA will send this back up and neutral/ negative CAD figs and a positive NFP will see this shoot back towards 0.786 fib line 1.01-1.0130
If the scenario goes the other way upbeat / neutral RBA, good Cad figs and a negative NFP , then expect this to lose the battle @ the 0.618 and it will trickle towards the next fib around the 0.98 zone
This will be a big week for this pair along with USD/CAD especially ...........
Stay tuned Im going to be watching like a hawk ..........
Note
Okay so round 1 to the Loony, as RBA were less than upbeat with there language, stressing a concern over the slow wage growth, and employment growth remains mixed.Anyways, we will be watching the data over the next couple of days, trade balance especially as mentioned, both AUD and CAD out Thursday good to note also right now Oil is on the rebound too ....
Caught the MKT by surprise and the AUD gets off loaded quickly check it out ......
Note
Okay so , we made some pips on the way down after the RBA comments , we have now cashed out but are waiting for the AUD trade balance figs to be posted, before going long on this pair .......So stay tuned...... its starting to line up , right now Trend line support is doing its job.
Will keep you informed .............
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.