**AUD/JPY Short Trade Recap – 30-Day Swing Trade**
I recently exited a **30-day swing short trade** on AUD/JPY, capturing a well-structured move based on multiple confluences.
### **Technical Reasons for the Trade:**
- 📉 **Trend:** Clear **downtrend** alignment.
- 🔴 **Oscillators:** **Overbought** conditions signaled exhaustion.
- 📊 **Price Action:** Strong **sell signal** at a key **supply zone**.
- 🔄 **Mean Reversion:** Price **retraced to the mean** after completing a **5-wave structure** on the 4H timeframe.
### **Fundamental Reasons for the Trade:**
- 📉 **COT Data:**
- **Bearish AUD:** Commercials were aggressively shorting AUD.
- **Bullish JPY:** Commercials increased their long positions on JPY.
- 💰 **Monetary Policy Divergence:**
- **RBA Rate Cuts:** The **Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)** cut rates to **4.10%** on **February 18, 2025**, citing **slowing inflation**.
- **Japan’s Strength:** Japan’s economy showed **2.8% annualized GDP growth** in **Q4 2024**, strengthening the Yen.
- 🛑 **Market Sentiment:**
- **Risk-Off Environment:** A shift in sentiment favored the safe-haven JPY over the risk-sensitive AUD.
- **Bond Yields:** Rising **Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields** further supported JPY strength.
### **Trade Outcome:**
This trade played out exactly as planned, reaching its target as AUD/JPY moved lower. A textbook **combination of technical structure, COT positioning, and macro fundamentals**.
✅ **Executed the plan, managed risk, and booked profits. On to the next trade!** 🚀
I recently exited a **30-day swing short trade** on AUD/JPY, capturing a well-structured move based on multiple confluences.
### **Technical Reasons for the Trade:**
- 📉 **Trend:** Clear **downtrend** alignment.
- 🔴 **Oscillators:** **Overbought** conditions signaled exhaustion.
- 📊 **Price Action:** Strong **sell signal** at a key **supply zone**.
- 🔄 **Mean Reversion:** Price **retraced to the mean** after completing a **5-wave structure** on the 4H timeframe.
### **Fundamental Reasons for the Trade:**
- 📉 **COT Data:**
- **Bearish AUD:** Commercials were aggressively shorting AUD.
- **Bullish JPY:** Commercials increased their long positions on JPY.
- 💰 **Monetary Policy Divergence:**
- **RBA Rate Cuts:** The **Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)** cut rates to **4.10%** on **February 18, 2025**, citing **slowing inflation**.
- **Japan’s Strength:** Japan’s economy showed **2.8% annualized GDP growth** in **Q4 2024**, strengthening the Yen.
- 🛑 **Market Sentiment:**
- **Risk-Off Environment:** A shift in sentiment favored the safe-haven JPY over the risk-sensitive AUD.
- **Bond Yields:** Rising **Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields** further supported JPY strength.
### **Trade Outcome:**
This trade played out exactly as planned, reaching its target as AUD/JPY moved lower. A textbook **combination of technical structure, COT positioning, and macro fundamentals**.
✅ **Executed the plan, managed risk, and booked profits. On to the next trade!** 🚀
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.