Following US CPI coming out as expected, (showing a slight uptick in inflation for December) DXY pushed back to 108.6-108.4 area:
-> A rising wedge was identified on AUD/USD with an exit on the upside following CPI release. -> Aussie is trading at a key area around 0.6260, whether it will be a retest of the top of the wedge or a reclaim of this resistance and become a fakeout is still to be determined.
Bulls narrative: -> Bulls see the current set up as a breakout from a wedge followed by a three leg pullback (5 min the time frame), they want a retest of 0.6260 followed by a follow through buying around 0.6260 and a reclaim of the 5 min EMA. bulls need to see follow through buying and consecutive bull bars. Previous 4H close above 0.62070 shows the market is willing to go above.
Bears narrative -> After breakout there was no significant follow through buying followed by 5 consecutive bear bars on the 30 min. >A reclaim of the 0.62025 on the 4H timeframe would open the door to downside targets for at least a test of the bottom of the wedge at 0.61700. W -> Bears want weak buying around the 0.6260 and trap bulls for follow through selling and put them in a loosing trade
For now, trade favors bulls with potential for upside targets around the daily 20EMA and a retest of the 0.62800 and 0.63000 area. If none of these scenarios play out in the coming hours, market will go sideways to down.
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