AUDUSD Insight

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Key Points
- The Trump administration’s additional 10% universal tariff on China officially took effect on the 4th, with China immediately announcing retaliatory measures.
- Since Trump’s tariff policy is being used as a negotiation tactic, a phone call with Xi Jinping is expected soon.
- Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commission's Trade Commissioner, stated that the EU is ready to cooperate with the U.S. immediately. He expressed hope that early negotiations could prevent disruptions to the most important trade and investment relationship in the world, signaling a preemptive conciliatory gesture.
- Australia's Q4 inflation rate fell short of expectations, approaching the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2-3%. The market broadly anticipates a 0.25% rate cut at the RBA's monetary policy meeting on February 18.

Key Economic Events This Week
+ February 5: U.S. Department of Labor JOLTS, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
+ February 6: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
+ February 7: U.S. January Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

AUDUSD Chart Analysis
After a recent sharp decline, the AUDUSD fell to the 0.61000 level but has rebounded steeply with support from the trendline. The next resistance is around the 0.63000 level, but since this has already been breached once, it is expected to break through easily. The upward trend is likely to continue toward the 0.64000 level. However, a reversal is anticipated around this range, potentially driving the price back down to the 0.60000 level.

If movements differ from these expectations, we will quickly adjust our strategy.

Disclaimer

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