The fundamentals of the Australian dollar are bearish
On the dollar front, a number of unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data supported the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes to curb inflation.
The January core inflation data, including CPI, PPI and retail sales, all rebounded. Combined with the wage data in the non-agricultural employment report, it shows that US inflation has rebounded in stages. Although the downward trend of inflation remains unchanged, it will stimulate Fed extends rate hikes
The U.S. dollar rebounded strongly due to the rise in inflation and stimulated the central bank to raise interest rates. Worries prompted investors to cover the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar regained its dominance in the short-term situation. At the same time, the strong US dollar depresses commodity prices, and the Australian dollar loses its power. Interest rate hike expectations are also extremely detrimental to the performance of U.S. stocks. After the end of the earnings season, U.S. stocks lack guidance, and rising inflation suppresses market liquidity and puts pressure on stock market sentiment.
In this situation, the short position of the Australian dollar has the best time, location, and harmony.
Technical head and shoulders The head and shoulders pattern is a high chance of winning in the technical trend, and it is one of the skills that must be mastered
It takes a long time for the head-and-shoulders pattern to form to establish, and from breaking to the end of the pattern. It is advisable to focus on the trend above the 240-minute level. The longer the time period, the more effective it is. After the pattern is established, the target price can be calculated and the transaction is successful. High rate.
This time the Australian dollar formed a head-and-shoulders top from January 6 to the present. If the daily chart is blurred, you can pay attention to 240 minutes. The neckline position can be a horizontal line or an oblique line, which can be based on one's own experience
It can be seen in the figure that the head of the Australian dollar is at the 0.7150 line, with 0.7000 as the high point of the right shoulder. After breaking the 0.6850 line, it has established its shape and is currently just breaking the position.
Combined with the negative fundamentals, the decline in the Australian dollar has been completed. Use 0.6850 as the reference resistance to short rallies, and the 0.6550 level is the target for the head and shoulders.
In terms of specific operations, it depends on personal experience and affordability.
1. Aggressives keep their positions unchanged after shorting, set the stop loss above 0.6920 or 0.7000, and move the stop loss slightly downward at any time until the exchange rate reaches the target position.
2. After the prudent and short-term traders short around 0.68000, the stop loss should be set at least above 0.6850-0.6880, leaving a certain fluctuation space, waiting for the PCE data or deciding to close the position next week.
The grasp of the market trend and the patience to hold positions require a large number of firm offer summaries and the self-confidence generated from this, plus a little understanding, which is not a day's work.
Follow me and witness the market trend
The January core inflation data, including CPI, PPI and retail sales, all rebounded. Combined with the wage data in the non-agricultural employment report, it shows that US inflation has rebounded in stages. Although the downward trend of inflation remains unchanged, it will stimulate Fed extends rate hikes
The U.S. dollar rebounded strongly due to the rise in inflation and stimulated the central bank to raise interest rates. Worries prompted investors to cover the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar regained its dominance in the short-term situation. At the same time, the strong US dollar depresses commodity prices, and the Australian dollar loses its power. Interest rate hike expectations are also extremely detrimental to the performance of U.S. stocks. After the end of the earnings season, U.S. stocks lack guidance, and rising inflation suppresses market liquidity and puts pressure on stock market sentiment.
In this situation, the short position of the Australian dollar has the best time, location, and harmony.
Technical head and shoulders The head and shoulders pattern is a high chance of winning in the technical trend, and it is one of the skills that must be mastered
It takes a long time for the head-and-shoulders pattern to form to establish, and from breaking to the end of the pattern. It is advisable to focus on the trend above the 240-minute level. The longer the time period, the more effective it is. After the pattern is established, the target price can be calculated and the transaction is successful. High rate.
This time the Australian dollar formed a head-and-shoulders top from January 6 to the present. If the daily chart is blurred, you can pay attention to 240 minutes. The neckline position can be a horizontal line or an oblique line, which can be based on one's own experience
It can be seen in the figure that the head of the Australian dollar is at the 0.7150 line, with 0.7000 as the high point of the right shoulder. After breaking the 0.6850 line, it has established its shape and is currently just breaking the position.
Combined with the negative fundamentals, the decline in the Australian dollar has been completed. Use 0.6850 as the reference resistance to short rallies, and the 0.6550 level is the target for the head and shoulders.
In terms of specific operations, it depends on personal experience and affordability.
1. Aggressives keep their positions unchanged after shorting, set the stop loss above 0.6920 or 0.7000, and move the stop loss slightly downward at any time until the exchange rate reaches the target position.
2. After the prudent and short-term traders short around 0.68000, the stop loss should be set at least above 0.6850-0.6880, leaving a certain fluctuation space, waiting for the PCE data or deciding to close the position next week.
The grasp of the market trend and the patience to hold positions require a large number of firm offer summaries and the self-confidence generated from this, plus a little understanding, which is not a day's work.
Follow me and witness the market trend
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.