AUDUSD Insight

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Key Points
- The U.S. is engaged in one-on-one negotiations with Russia regarding an end to the war in Ukraine, while tensions with Ukraine and the European Union continue to rise. U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky on Truth Social, calling him a “moderately successful comedian” and a “dictator who never held an election.”
- ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel stated that the time is approaching for the ECB to either pause or completely halt rate cuts. She explained that inflation in the Eurozone remains high due to new shocks in energy prices and persistent wage growth.
- The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that, given the debt ceiling dynamics, there could be significant fluctuations in reserves over the coming months. Several participants mentioned that it might be appropriate to pause or slow down the balance sheet reduction until the debt ceiling issue is resolved.

Key Economic Events This Week
+ February 21: U.S. February Manufacturing PMI, February Services PMI

AUDUSD Chart Analysis
AUDUSD has successfully broken through the 0.63000 resistance level and continues its upward trend. However, there is overlapping resistance at the 0.64000 level, making further upward movement challenging. A significant pullback is likely, with 0.60000 being the most probable support level. Given this setup, the bias remains bearish.

If AUDUSD breaks above 0.64000, the next target would be 0.66000. In that case, we will adjust our strategy accordingly.

Disclaimer

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