AUD/USD - 4H Chart {More Pending Bearish Fractal Divergence?}
Update: Friday March 21st, 2014
Side Note: What I didn't see before in my observation, I see clearly now. I did not realize that alongside the bearish divergence, price action formed a double top pattern with two upper Fractal Candles. So maybe I need to listen to what Pro Trader Oscar Carboni of Las Vegas always says, "If you see a double top...sell a double top!"
Spotted here on the AUD/USD 4-Hour chart we have some Bearish Divergence in the MACD indicator as price went up but decreased in bullish momentum on the Oscillator. I'm starting to really appreciate the power of the longer time frames like the 1H, 4H and Daily charts because they make trading so much easier. When I used to only trade the lower time frames I used to be nervous and shaky but now I am totally relaxed, confident and cool as breeze when I trade!
[Update: I forgot to mention this also. One of the benefits of trading on the higher time frames from 1H and above, is that most economic news events do not affect your open orders and positions in a very negative way. Especially if you are already in a strong trend or your position is deep in profit, a news event should not have a detrimental affect on your overall position {especially from 4H and above}. This is why managing the majority of your trades on the higher time frame charts (1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly) makes trading so much easier and stress-free. And if you do most of your trading on the Daily and Weekly then you will barely even notice those huge "spike candles" that come form news events on your charts.]
I highly believe that price will continue to retrace upwards after yesterday's strong move to the downside and then come face to face with the force of upper resistance alongside bearish divergence, and push farther down as it may break through the lower green counter-trend line. With that being said, I still feel neutral about price action at the moment.
Keep in mind, this is the 4-Hour chart here, and since it is already Thursday the bearish divergent move to the downside may not take place until Friday or early next week if it does happen to break above the upper green trend line and soar higher.
[Update: Yes, with this higher time frame, price will not even begin to move back down until sometime next week. How far it will go down still remains to be seen. But remember this traders -- divergence is a very powerful leading indicator and normally is the precursor to new long-term trends!]
Since I currently have a neutral stance on this pair, I have listed three potential Take Profit Exit Zones below for each direction.
Note - These are not exact or perfect and can be adjusted. Always remember the fact that you can manually close out your trades early if price does not show enough strength to make it to any of the target levels!
Bullish Take Profit Exit Zones {if price ascends back into a strong uptrend breaking above the upper green trend line}:
+ Bull Target Exit Zone #1 = near 0.91052
+ Bull Target Exit Zone #2 = near 0.91468
+ Bull Target Exit Zone #2 = near 0.91928
Bearish Take Profit Exit Zones {if price descends into a downtrend breaking below the lower green trend line}:
- Bear Target Exit Zone #1 = near 0.89023
- Bear Target Exit Zone #2 = near 0.88423
- Bear Target Exit Zone #2 = near 0.87854
[Update: In the next coming week(s), I will be hunting for more divergence setups and strong fractal swing patterns and will update further as price "speaks" and tells it's true story.]
Side Note: What I didn't see before in my observation, I see clearly now. I did not realize that alongside the bearish divergence, price action formed a double top pattern with two upper Fractal Candles. So maybe I need to listen to what Pro Trader Oscar Carboni of Las Vegas always says, "If you see a double top...sell a double top!"
Spotted here on the AUD/USD 4-Hour chart we have some Bearish Divergence in the MACD indicator as price went up but decreased in bullish momentum on the Oscillator. I'm starting to really appreciate the power of the longer time frames like the 1H, 4H and Daily charts because they make trading so much easier. When I used to only trade the lower time frames I used to be nervous and shaky but now I am totally relaxed, confident and cool as breeze when I trade!
[Update: I forgot to mention this also. One of the benefits of trading on the higher time frames from 1H and above, is that most economic news events do not affect your open orders and positions in a very negative way. Especially if you are already in a strong trend or your position is deep in profit, a news event should not have a detrimental affect on your overall position {especially from 4H and above}. This is why managing the majority of your trades on the higher time frame charts (1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly) makes trading so much easier and stress-free. And if you do most of your trading on the Daily and Weekly then you will barely even notice those huge "spike candles" that come form news events on your charts.]
I highly believe that price will continue to retrace upwards after yesterday's strong move to the downside and then come face to face with the force of upper resistance alongside bearish divergence, and push farther down as it may break through the lower green counter-trend line. With that being said, I still feel neutral about price action at the moment.
Keep in mind, this is the 4-Hour chart here, and since it is already Thursday the bearish divergent move to the downside may not take place until Friday or early next week if it does happen to break above the upper green trend line and soar higher.
[Update: Yes, with this higher time frame, price will not even begin to move back down until sometime next week. How far it will go down still remains to be seen. But remember this traders -- divergence is a very powerful leading indicator and normally is the precursor to new long-term trends!]
Since I currently have a neutral stance on this pair, I have listed three potential Take Profit Exit Zones below for each direction.
Note - These are not exact or perfect and can be adjusted. Always remember the fact that you can manually close out your trades early if price does not show enough strength to make it to any of the target levels!
Bullish Take Profit Exit Zones {if price ascends back into a strong uptrend breaking above the upper green trend line}:
+ Bull Target Exit Zone #1 = near 0.91052
+ Bull Target Exit Zone #2 = near 0.91468
+ Bull Target Exit Zone #2 = near 0.91928
Bearish Take Profit Exit Zones {if price descends into a downtrend breaking below the lower green trend line}:
- Bear Target Exit Zone #1 = near 0.89023
- Bear Target Exit Zone #2 = near 0.88423
- Bear Target Exit Zone #2 = near 0.87854
[Update: In the next coming week(s), I will be hunting for more divergence setups and strong fractal swing patterns and will update further as price "speaks" and tells it's true story.]
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