AUDUSD based on no QE
See annotations, and linked idea below.
The QE announcement will have an effect on the longer term value of the pair; we will outline the possible effect on both scenarios.
We believe QE will not go ahead any time soon, if it does it will be announced mid next year (June) – even though very unlikely. However, we can expect a gradual decline in interest rates (continued trend since 2011) with the attempt to boost economic growth. Even with low interest at 0.75% GDP targets have not been met. Therefore, we can expect interest rates to be reduced to 0.50% then potentially 0.25% - a bearish effect on the AUD. We however predict that interest rates will remain the same on the upcoming Tuesday announcement and can expect a reduction of interest later next year.
As bullish structure is presented around 0.67500 we can potentially anticipate price accelerating to the upside of 0.6900-0.7000 before continuation to the downside. This could also be a great correlation with the assumptions and timeline we have established above.
Furthermore, adding to our assumptions, further confluence for upside can be due to the Chinese official November PMI announced over the weekend which beat the market estimates; having an effect on the USD do the the trade wars.
Later in the week we have the US ISM Non-manufacturing data being announced which will have an effect on the smaller time frames (hopefully in time for the shorter term correction).
We then finish off the week with non-farm payrolls which we believe will be a surprise as the job market according the US reports and data is said to be positive. This also should have an effect on the chart from the H4 and below.
In a brief outline and conclusion, we have briefly discussed our assumptions and attempted to put a timeline together in conjunction with price; we therefore believe price will reach 0.6900-0.7000 before further downside acceleration continues.
As outlined we will now demonstrate how price will be effected if QE goes ahead and if QE does not go ahead. Once we have demonstrated these scenarios we will provide a forecast for the potential upside move to 0.6900-0.7000.
The QE announcement will have an effect on the longer term value of the pair; we will outline the possible effect on both scenarios.
We believe QE will not go ahead any time soon, if it does it will be announced mid next year (June) – even though very unlikely. However, we can expect a gradual decline in interest rates (continued trend since 2011) with the attempt to boost economic growth. Even with low interest at 0.75% GDP targets have not been met. Therefore, we can expect interest rates to be reduced to 0.50% then potentially 0.25% - a bearish effect on the AUD. We however predict that interest rates will remain the same on the upcoming Tuesday announcement and can expect a reduction of interest later next year.
As bullish structure is presented around 0.67500 we can potentially anticipate price accelerating to the upside of 0.6900-0.7000 before continuation to the downside. This could also be a great correlation with the assumptions and timeline we have established above.
Furthermore, adding to our assumptions, further confluence for upside can be due to the Chinese official November PMI announced over the weekend which beat the market estimates; having an effect on the USD do the the trade wars.
Later in the week we have the US ISM Non-manufacturing data being announced which will have an effect on the smaller time frames (hopefully in time for the shorter term correction).
We then finish off the week with non-farm payrolls which we believe will be a surprise as the job market according the US reports and data is said to be positive. This also should have an effect on the chart from the H4 and below.
In a brief outline and conclusion, we have briefly discussed our assumptions and attempted to put a timeline together in conjunction with price; we therefore believe price will reach 0.6900-0.7000 before further downside acceleration continues.
As outlined we will now demonstrate how price will be effected if QE goes ahead and if QE does not go ahead. Once we have demonstrated these scenarios we will provide a forecast for the potential upside move to 0.6900-0.7000.
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