Long
AU: history repeats?
Last year, the asset started a bullish rally (similar to the one that has just ended currently) that led the price to increase by more than 100%; From that moment on, the price corrected and began to generate a bullish channel (green dotted line ceiling). The correction it had then never reached the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, but it was the 30-week weighted average that went looking for the price and accompanied it support throughout this channel (this pattern is likely to repeat itself). In February of this year, prior to the covid-19 crisis, the canal ceiling was broken upward with a significant increase in volume, after which the asset falls sharply and recovers in the same way. But this time, the increase in the price is more than 150% and after breaking the medium-term downtrend line (black line) it again exceeds the channel ceiling and unfolds it (green dotted line is now floor), exceeding the maximum at the end of February this year. Today the price corrects and contacts the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement that also converges with the bearish TL of the medium term (black line) and it seems that the paper generated a throwback to it and that is when we are presented with this great opportunity. The interesting thing about the current price situation is that from this point history can be repeated and in that case I have two objectives. The primary I postulate in the maximum of July 2016 and starting point of the medium-term downtrend line broken today; which represents a rise of more than 20% and as a second objective we have a relevant value from March 2014 that was support and that is now going to act as resistance, while the price is going to meet the upper secondary channel ceiling in US $ 7 which represents a rise from current prices of more than 40%. In case of losing the support in which the asset is currently located, it would greatly complicate the performance of the paper (and the proposed strategy) since it would fall back below the medium-term downtrend line. Although below it presents a relevant support in the 0.382 retracement to which the wma of 30 is clearly rising. If last year's asset behavior model were to repeat itself, now that the rally was more pronounced and the correction sooner, perhaps we would see the average of 30 quickly go up to look for the price and accompany it as support throughout this second channel. I do not include analysis of indicators so as not to extend.
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