Looking at BABA on the weekly time frame since IPO so we can get a full view of the volume profile. We can see BABA has been chopping around in the wide range since Sep of last year.
Prior to that price had broke out from the 1.618 fib and put in a new all time high from the breakout. What we never saw was a backtest of the 1.618. In my experience studying fibs I have noticed that price will come back to test demand at this breakout.
Now when we look at the profile we see that the majority of the volume traded is above and below the 1.618 level (highlighted w/ red boxes). While there is a pocket of low volume in between (green box).
I am thinking perhaps price will come down to test demand in this range and fill in some of the profile. The confirmation for me that this will NOT happen is if price can move back above the short term .618 fib(pink) around 192 and move out of the CHOP zone.
In the green box is where I would look to position myself long for a push to test all time highs.
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