Bitcoin Logarithmic Regression Outlook
The BTC price on halving dates (blue) has in the past very regularly been ~50% of the corresponding value of the logarithmic regression trend (yellow line).
By extrapolating that behavior, we get a BTC price of ~$50.000 for the 4th halving date (mid March 2024).
During the preceding bubbles, price exceeded the halving date price by 76%-180%, on average ~125%. I consider the first bubble an outlier with incomplete data, since a true market was not fully established during the first years. Since price data is incomplete I focus only on the two complete cycles (2012-2016, overlay in white, and 2016-2020, overlay in green). With $50.000 as base, the blue target box defines as 50k*(100%+124%) = 112k (upper limit) and 50k*(100%+76%) = 88k (lower limit).
By extrapolating that behavior, we get a BTC price of ~$50.000 for the 4th halving date (mid March 2024).
During the preceding bubbles, price exceeded the halving date price by 76%-180%, on average ~125%. I consider the first bubble an outlier with incomplete data, since a true market was not fully established during the first years. Since price data is incomplete I focus only on the two complete cycles (2012-2016, overlay in white, and 2016-2020, overlay in green). With $50.000 as base, the blue target box defines as 50k*(100%+124%) = 112k (upper limit) and 50k*(100%+76%) = 88k (lower limit).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.