Bitcoin Cash - What if Today is the Day the Dragon is Slain?
Updated
Bitcoin Cash has had a bit of a bullish run the last few days. That being said, we all know about possible Dragonslaying and Cashening scenarios. But, when are they? Where could they be? Many things are hard to decipher and hard to see.
Bitcoin Legacy just had its difficulty adjustment. 18% up to a new all time high. There's a lot to talk about, more than I can talk about here. You can check out my Yours blog in my signature if you want a deep dive into the analysis of the situation today. Please keep in mind today's Yours is fundamental/situational analysis and not a trade structure.
Regarding price action, Cash is actually doing pretty well considering all the Tethered mania around IOTA and Bitcoin Legacy. We are in a descending channel formed by the downtrend line from the previous $1720 double top and the recent two lows. Price action is starting to form a potential bottoming/reversal pattern, even though it's at the bottom of the Kumo.
We still trade slightly below the 0.382 retracement, but considering the nature and origin of yesterday's price action, along with the $200 difference in trading value between Finex and Korea, you have to evaluate things within the context of the situation at hand.
Willy21 shows very oversold on both averages and selling momentum appears to be tapering off.
Bitcoin Legacy may be at a top after dropping $600 in an hour.
So, how to trade?
The reality is that long entries should happen on a breakout of the local downtrend line at $1560. You must wait for a 1H+ candle to close above this trendline as confirmation for a safe trade. This resistance must be broken through and it's also the densest volume profile area. What we're looking for is the $1600 mark to transform into a resistance-becomes-support situation.
Fundamentally, you should not invest in coins because they're pumping. You should not invest in coins because of Cashening or Dragonslayer situations, either. You should invest in coins because of fundamentals, and the reality is that Bitcoin Cash has one of the strongest, brightest, and best organic and natural communities in all of crypto. Possibly the best and most legit natural community.
What does this mean? This means that growth in your investment is not reliant on conspiracies or manipulation. Instead, it's reliant on achieving the organic, critical masss from merchant and human adoption. It's something spreading like wildfire, faster than most people can see.
By the time they see the smoke, there will already be fire.
When there's fire, Bitcoin Cash will never see a four digit number starting with "1" again.
Regarding Bitmex holdings, Bitmex only has about 13,500 Bitcoin Cash in their holdings, as they weren't that big August 1. Xapo dumped nearly 100,000 yesterday. Bitmex has not moved their coins yet. What's curious about this is _why_, and I discuss that in my Yours article.
Come and join the Bitcoin Cash Fund community chat and get involved
chat.thebitcoincash.fund
==
Stop the Organ Harvesting Persecution of Falun Gong Practitioners by the Chinese Communist Party: (dafoh.org/petition-to-the-united-nations)
Bitcoin Legacy just had its difficulty adjustment. 18% up to a new all time high. There's a lot to talk about, more than I can talk about here. You can check out my Yours blog in my signature if you want a deep dive into the analysis of the situation today. Please keep in mind today's Yours is fundamental/situational analysis and not a trade structure.
Regarding price action, Cash is actually doing pretty well considering all the Tethered mania around IOTA and Bitcoin Legacy. We are in a descending channel formed by the downtrend line from the previous $1720 double top and the recent two lows. Price action is starting to form a potential bottoming/reversal pattern, even though it's at the bottom of the Kumo.
We still trade slightly below the 0.382 retracement, but considering the nature and origin of yesterday's price action, along with the $200 difference in trading value between Finex and Korea, you have to evaluate things within the context of the situation at hand.
Willy21 shows very oversold on both averages and selling momentum appears to be tapering off.
Bitcoin Legacy may be at a top after dropping $600 in an hour.
So, how to trade?
The reality is that long entries should happen on a breakout of the local downtrend line at $1560. You must wait for a 1H+ candle to close above this trendline as confirmation for a safe trade. This resistance must be broken through and it's also the densest volume profile area. What we're looking for is the $1600 mark to transform into a resistance-becomes-support situation.
Fundamentally, you should not invest in coins because they're pumping. You should not invest in coins because of Cashening or Dragonslayer situations, either. You should invest in coins because of fundamentals, and the reality is that Bitcoin Cash has one of the strongest, brightest, and best organic and natural communities in all of crypto. Possibly the best and most legit natural community.
What does this mean? This means that growth in your investment is not reliant on conspiracies or manipulation. Instead, it's reliant on achieving the organic, critical masss from merchant and human adoption. It's something spreading like wildfire, faster than most people can see.
By the time they see the smoke, there will already be fire.
When there's fire, Bitcoin Cash will never see a four digit number starting with "1" again.
Regarding Bitmex holdings, Bitmex only has about 13,500 Bitcoin Cash in their holdings, as they weren't that big August 1. Xapo dumped nearly 100,000 yesterday. Bitmex has not moved their coins yet. What's curious about this is _why_, and I discuss that in my Yours article.
Come and join the Bitcoin Cash Fund community chat and get involved
chat.thebitcoincash.fund
==
Stop the Organ Harvesting Persecution of Falun Gong Practitioners by the Chinese Communist Party: (dafoh.org/petition-to-the-united-nations)
Note
If you liked this analysis and/or profit from this trade, please sign the petition to end the organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners by the Chinese Communist Party. Please spread on social media as well, if you'd be so gracious. I thank everyone for all the tips and reads on Yours.
I really appreciate the kindness and know the money doesn't come easy.
Note
Some nice upwards movement alreadyNote
Note
Bitcoin Cash is the only coin on the market right now that's showing strength.
Legacy is in a situation where it looks like Bugs Bunny cartoons when Coyote runs too far off a ledge chasing Roadrunner and then stands there until he realizes he's out in thin air.
Note
In classic manipulated market style, breakout turned into dump has broken the wedge line. Squeeze is off on momentum accelerator and trend is down. Long trades not advised until reversal patterns show themselves.
In the meantime, Bitcoin Legacy is on the way to 15k
Note
OkCoin December 29 Bitcoin Cash futures just dumped their premium. i.imgur.com/yJlQJ2l.png
What does this mean? Futures markets are speculation. In futures you're betting on a theoretical price and profit and loss is settling in BCH. With CME/CBOE "fiat settled" futures, it's the same, but profit and loss is settling in USD.
These momentum swings are controlled by larger players. The elimination of the premium against spot price means that players are now thinking Bitcoin Cash will not be worth more than spot price at the end of the month.
What can you read into this? Many, many things. I'll let you mull it over.
Right now you should regard this as the start of a downtrend. This downtrend may be major.
Long term investing advised. Day trading is not.
Note
For those asking for support areas:$1300 is unlikely to actually hold as support and is in a weak spot of VPVR profile.
These are support levels to look for bounces in. Price action may or may not get there. Many things can happen.
Bitcoin Legacy is suddenly over 100k unconfirmed transactions.
Think it over.
Note
Here's me wondering if I underestimated $1300 support. Bitcoin Legacy gonna 16k. It might not appear that way, but the situation could soon turn on its head.
Note
While markets are sleepy and this first range of support is busy being... supported... if you're still interested in Operation Dragonslayer and a bunch of sweet conspiracy theories, I have a new post on Yours (in my signature). This article is entirely free. Shoutouts to all you readers and thanks a lot for all the support.
Note
Regarding the market, how quickly people forgot September. Everything was exactly the same. We're now in the end game where all altcoins dump and the money flows into BTC for the pump and pump's conclusion. In the absence of fundamental news, Bitcoin Cash will be treated the same by the markets. When it reaches the end, the pendulum will swing the other way.
BTC at ~135k unconfirmed transactions and the blood hasn't started yet
ETH unusable by Cryptokitties.
BCH is the only fiat offramp there is now, thanks to Stamp.
Note
0.075 is the 1.272 retracement fib.
190,000 unconfirmed transactions. Legacy chain is mining 4 blocks an hour.
Bitcoin Cash hashpower is slow, but keep in mind, the instant hashpower moves back, it's off to the races.
With Cryptokitties breaking Ethereum and Bitcoin breaking itself because Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash is now the only viable fiat exit.
And Bitstamp has 0 trading fees on BCH for the rest of the month.
Hmmmmmmmmmm...
Note
Friends, if you are not convinced on Bitcoin Cash as a long-term hold or a long-term project, if you don't understand its roots or its origins, my honest advice to you is that you should sell somewhere between now and $1400. We came very close to downtrend target 2 and are experiencing our first real bouncing pattern
I can tell you that the ultimate purpose of this type of price action is to make you fearful and afraid. It is to make you capitulate and give up, writing down huge losses at the bottom.
That being said, until we see a more pronounced reversal pattern, this is a strong downtrend and long trades should not be opened.
Trade carefully. If you think BTC is the best, I encourage you to sell your position immediately.
Just prepare yourself for the coming days and weeks.
Note
Don't have much time to post right now, but ratio pair is looking like we're amidst an albeit slow moving reversal confirmationShould I do a new trade post later this afternoon/evening? What do you guys think?
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