BIIB: Biogen, low risk long term buy
Updated
Reward to risk long term in 
BIIB is very attractive here. I've gone long via a calendar spread before the latest FDA approval news, which turned out like a good long position when Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm received accelerated approval. Following this, related companies which also have Alzheimer's drugs pending approval (like 
LLY) received a dramatic boost. In the case of LLY, their drug was approved as well a few days later. Both charts are very strong in the long term, showing signs of yearly uptrends present, indicating a multi year rally in these stocks is possible.
Accelerated approval means that the FDA approves the drug due to the possibility that it may provide therapeutic benefit to patients even though there is some uncertainty about the drug’s clinical benefit.
Aduhelm is the first therapy approved for Alzheimer’s disease that is directed at the underlying pathology itself (the presence of amyloid beta plaques in the brain). The clinical trials were the first to show that a reduction in these plaques is expected to lead to a reduction in the clinical decline of this form of dementia.
There is a lot of debate regarding the drug's price tag, as well as the clinical benefit it may or not provide, but I think it's a reasonable bet to make here, from a technical and fundamental standpoint. Valuation wise, the company has very low long term debt to equity, high free cash flow yield and a high earnings yield (trailing twelve months), earnings growth has been negative in the last year, but positive in the previous five years. There is a lot at stake with Aduhelm's potential success, so, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, consider that the yearly uptrend is invalid if price moves below 243.58 to define your position sizing based on your risk appetite.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BIIB is very attractive here. I've gone long via a calendar spread before the latest FDA approval news, which turned out like a good long position when Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm received accelerated approval. Following this, related companies which also have Alzheimer's drugs pending approval (like LLY) received a dramatic boost. In the case of LLY, their drug was approved as well a few days later. Both charts are very strong in the long term, showing signs of yearly uptrends present, indicating a multi year rally in these stocks is possible.Accelerated approval means that the FDA approves the drug due to the possibility that it may provide therapeutic benefit to patients even though there is some uncertainty about the drug’s clinical benefit.
Aduhelm is the first therapy approved for Alzheimer’s disease that is directed at the underlying pathology itself (the presence of amyloid beta plaques in the brain). The clinical trials were the first to show that a reduction in these plaques is expected to lead to a reduction in the clinical decline of this form of dementia.
There is a lot of debate regarding the drug's price tag, as well as the clinical benefit it may or not provide, but I think it's a reasonable bet to make here, from a technical and fundamental standpoint. Valuation wise, the company has very low long term debt to equity, high free cash flow yield and a high earnings yield (trailing twelve months), earnings growth has been negative in the last year, but positive in the previous five years. There is a lot at stake with Aduhelm's potential success, so, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, consider that the yearly uptrend is invalid if price moves below 243.58 to define your position sizing based on your risk appetite.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Nice timing for this post, FDA news came out, if you entered at the open today you're already up.
Note
BRIEF-FDA Approves Updated Aduhelm™ Prescribing Information To Emphasize Population Studied In Clinical TrialsBiogen Inc BIIB :
* FDA APPROVES UPDATED ADUHELM™ PRESCRIBING INFORMATION TO EMPHASIZE POPULATION STUDIED IN CLINICAL TRIALS
* BIOGEN INC - ADUHELM SHOULD BE INITIATED IN PATIENTS WITH MILD COGNITIVE IMPAIRMENT DUE TO ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE OR MILD ALZHEIMER'S DEMENTIA
* BIOGEN INC - UPDATE CLARIFIES INDICATION BY EMPHASIZING INFORMATION ABOUT DISEASE STAGES STUDIED IN ADUHELM CLINICAL TRIALS
Source text for Eikon: ID:nGNE2lxXj7 Further company coverage: BIIB
Note
Acting strong since the pullback, but now the daily might reverse and get oversold next. Long term signal is intact, so good to pick it up again in the next oversold dip.
Note
(sell rallies, buy dips)Trade active
Let's F###### go!
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