speculative fib channel suggests we could reach top by October
Updated
just playing around with the fib channel here on the log chart until i found some consistency...i noticed that the blue .786 fib was the top of the 2013 false top and the 2017 true top. I also noticed that in 2013 after the false top it took 7 more monthly candles to reach the true top and wen it did it rose up 2 extra fib levels/colors before it hit that top in 2014. If we hypothetically are playing out a fractal of that 2013-2014 bull market, and we assume we will get 7 more monthly candles following our current false top until the real top...that would take us to october of this year....now, if we also did the same thing and pumped priceaction 2 extra fib levels that would have us hitting the teal .618 fib level and if we were to come anywhere close to that in the month of october then suddenly 280-300k (as shown here by the red bullseye) is a real possibility...this price range would fit perfectly with plan B's stock to flow model which has a price projection around 288k. I am by no means saying this is how things will unfold. I have not really used the fib channel tool very much so it may very well be that there is a much more accurate angle to this fib channel than the one I've come up with...but its fun to speculate sometimes and when it lined up at this angle I saw quite a bit of bullish confluence so I thought it would be fun to share so later I can hit play on this chart and see if it comes anywhere close to this. As always, none of this is financial advice. Thanks for reading.
Note
toclarify here...this is what I think could potentially happen if we were to confirm that the high we just had was in fact a false top...there's still quite a possibility it is a real top and we could still go down further and have a micro bear market here. However at this current point and time i think probability still slightly favors the recent high being a false top like in 2013.Note
So we definitely didn’t hit the blow off top in October. My new estimates places us reaching the top in January. If we were to do this the fib line we top out on may actually be one fib line lower than the one I anticipated we would top out on. If this si the case our top will be around 280k. If however we still can reach the fib line I had originally anticipated being the one we would hit at the end o the bull run then we could go as high as up into the 400 thousands. To me the 280k level seems at more probable. We will know soon enough however.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.