The Tom DeMark Sequential Indicator has lived up to its reputation, as was evidenced by the performance of Bitcoin in January. This was truly a testament to its efficacy.
As seen in September, the indicator quoted a 9, and the Countdown phase has now progressed to December being a 12 and January a 13.
The Countdown phase is a crucial aspect of the Tom DeMark Sequential, and it is triggered once the Setup phase is complete. The phase is easily recognizable by the red, non-consecutive numbers displayed. Its primary purpose is to measure the level of exhaustion among buyers and sellers in the market, by analyzing the direction of the underlying trend (Setup) and predicting the point at which the trend is most likely to reverse (trend exhaustion).
The calculation of the Countdown is simple yet powerful. It involves comparing the closing price of the current bar with the highest or lowest price of two previous bars. Each successful comparison results in a number, which provides a deeper understanding of the current trend's phase. Once the series reaches 13, the market is considered to be in a heightened state of vulnerability to a reversal. The risk level of the market determines the zone in which the trend should reverse, and the 12-bar rule dictates the time frame within which this reversal is expected to occur.