BLX Still Shows A Broken Trend And Slower Growth For Bitcoin
Updated
Zoomed in, you can see price is butting right up against that broken long term trendline, while the weekly oscillator is reaching the overbought zone. Price has also yet to reach the bottom of the curved channel (pink) 
The BLX chart is also mostly dominated by sell volume. Another odd thing to note is the enormous spike in volume on stablecoin traded pairs throughout the market turmoil, and specifically during the week of the SVB collapse. Even more perplexing is the huge drop off in volume as Bitcoin began to trade mostly sideways after that. Here's the Binance BTC/USDT chart as an example
If Bitcoin is to touch the bottom of the curve on my BLX chart, we could see a retest of the 15.5k low at minimum. My guess is that Bitcoin will ultimately fall out of the growth curve and trend lower over time. I made a speculative downtrend channel, giving Bitcoin perhaps a few more weeks of sideways and a possible new failed high. Due to the nature of Bitcoin's support (in that it is essentially an idea), it is unlikely to drop instantly to zero, but instead trend lower and lower as people lose interest over time.
Most still in the market seem to be bullish right now, already making projections for the next bull run. It's important to note that while SPX is still above 4000, Bitcoin is less than half of its all time high. Should traditional markets experience a more significant decline, I cannot imagine there would be enough liquidity to sustain another Bitcoin bull run. But....we live in strange times. It's perfectly possible that I'm completely off here. Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my view for fundamental reasons. If Bitcoin continues onwards to a new all time high, I don't think it'll be accompanied by anything good...though I suppose that's part of the bullish Bitcoin thesis :)
As always, this is my opinion only and should not be taken as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment.
The BLX chart is also mostly dominated by sell volume. Another odd thing to note is the enormous spike in volume on stablecoin traded pairs throughout the market turmoil, and specifically during the week of the SVB collapse. Even more perplexing is the huge drop off in volume as Bitcoin began to trade mostly sideways after that. Here's the Binance BTC/USDT chart as an example
If Bitcoin is to touch the bottom of the curve on my BLX chart, we could see a retest of the 15.5k low at minimum. My guess is that Bitcoin will ultimately fall out of the growth curve and trend lower over time. I made a speculative downtrend channel, giving Bitcoin perhaps a few more weeks of sideways and a possible new failed high. Due to the nature of Bitcoin's support (in that it is essentially an idea), it is unlikely to drop instantly to zero, but instead trend lower and lower as people lose interest over time.
Most still in the market seem to be bullish right now, already making projections for the next bull run. It's important to note that while SPX is still above 4000, Bitcoin is less than half of its all time high. Should traditional markets experience a more significant decline, I cannot imagine there would be enough liquidity to sustain another Bitcoin bull run. But....we live in strange times. It's perfectly possible that I'm completely off here. Nevertheless, I'm sticking to my view for fundamental reasons. If Bitcoin continues onwards to a new all time high, I don't think it'll be accompanied by anything good...though I suppose that's part of the bullish Bitcoin thesis :)
As always, this is my opinion only and should not be taken as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment.
Comment
For what it's worth, this idea is still in effect. The initial 100% bounce took a bit longer than my projection. 
Comment
Here's a bit closer, showing room for another pop, maybe even briefly up to 34k. We'll see. 
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