History Never Repeats, But it Often Rhymes
When analyzing the potential impact of the 2024 Bitcoin halving, it is wise to have an in-depth understanding of the price action of previous halving in 2020. This can help us to identify potential patterns and similarities that could play out in the current cycle.
Pre-Halving Price Action
In the lead-up to the 2022 halving, we saw a clear resistance/supply zone build up in the $12,000 range. This zone was tested multiple times, but price was unable to break through on a sustained basis. (Red Color Supply Zone)
Several months prior to the halving, price action visited the 200 EMA/SMA range. This was the same as the strong accumulation zone of the bear market in 2018/2019. Key reason for this dump was COVID-19 pandemic. This drop provided the best pre-halving buying opportunity.
(Purple Zone)
Price Recovery
Price recovered within weeks leading up to the halving on May 11, 2020. This recovery was fueled by a combination of factors, such as uncertain economic environment and halving anticipation. (Yellow Zone)
Post-Halving Accumulation
After the halving, we saw a period of accumulation as investors bought Bitcoin in anticipation of future price appreciation. This accumulation phase lasted for several months. Again this was the next best buying opportunity. Sametime there were many shake-off of inpatient investors. (Blue Zone)
2021 Parabolic Uptrend
Towards the end of 2020 price-action was able to break out from the accumulation and resistance zone. 2021 resulted on the expected parabolic uptrend in the first half of the year. Then it was retrace. again a recovery during latter part of the year. This created a Double Top Candle stick formation. This concluded the bull market, and it did not give the expected blow-off candle like in 2017.
Hope this post-analysis helped in order to build your plan for 2024 Halving and 2025 Expected Bull market
Based on the historical evidence, it is possible that we will see a similar pattern play out in the lead-up to and after the 2022 halving. This could include:
A period of accumulation as investors buy Bitcoin in anticipation of future price appreciation
A breakout from the current resistance zone
A sustained bull run as demand for Bitcoin continues to grow
It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. However, by understanding the historical price action of Bitcoin, we can better prepare for what may happen in the current cycle.