BTC BLX - That Which Can Not Be Unseen

Updated

Call me what you will, and you will, and I do not care- but you can't unsee this.
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Declining volume since 2015...

Tops on HTF's

Closer look at the current Horn Top on a 2 Week chart

Meeting resistance

Broke down out of Ascending Wedge

5 Waves with correctives abiding by the rule of alternation- Wave 2 sharp decline, Wave 4 extended in breadth

Bitcoin likes the 886 level on L/MTF's, note the level

Below DHMA's on the Weekly

Some Yearly chart levels to be aware of

Flip on Volume Profile

Fibonacci Time sequence on this Weekly chart has been correct 6 times so far for trend reversals since ATH, the next Weekly date in the sequence is Monday 7/22/2019, and the following date is 7/20/2020.

Now that you have seen all of this take into consideration the current perspective of Bitcoin by the US government; while Wall Street desires to take advantage of a new market they will not do so without proper regulation in place...but anyone can create an Altcoin. Any company can create a "crypto" as we have seen Facebook attempt to do so with Libra (not an actual cryptocurrency). You can look to the list of 100 members of the board of Calibra for companies desperate to also take advantage of new money in, to them, a new untapped market. There are also investigations into Bitfinex and Bitmex happening, Beaxy having been hampered buy low volume since opening, and Bakkt test launch of Futures. The last time a Futures product for BTC debuted it was the very beginning of the 2018 Bear Market. Also take the irrationality of the market right now, with maximalists calling for 30k, 50k, and plenty higher talking about the Moon- last time the market was like this? December 2017. Now, I do not believe that Libra will debut anytime soon, the reason why it is being greeted with government resistance is that Congress hates Facebook, and the reason why Wall Street and CNBC have been hyping Libra is because they are heavily invested in Facebook, but I do believe that we will see in influx of new Altcoins with an Altseason of epic proportions between 7/22/2019 and 7/20/2020. What happens after that can only be assessed at that time. I am not saying that Bitcoin will reach lows in the 3-digits but I do believe that Bitcoin will enter a Bear Market/year long consolidation period, beginning week of 7/22/2019...

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To be clear: In no way is this a price predictive analysis, the primary focus is timeline between 7/22/19 and 7/20/2020. I have not made any price prediction.

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3 Day Close below the 20-DHMA (red) and 60-DHMA (blue)

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Be sure to check my comments at the bottom for some extra reading.

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Daily 175-Day HMA (orange line) has flipped Bearish, a Bearish cross with the 60-Day HMA, and RSI very similar as in January 2018

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July closed at 10,085 with a Horn Top to go with the Double Top of June and the ATH...

On the Weekly price is being suppressed by the 8-Day HMA...

The 20-Day HMA is pushing down on the 3Day chart...

and the Daily shows a rejection off the 60-Day HMA...

Daily RAVI has also crossed below zero for the first time after an extended positive rise since January 2018.

I anticipate a continued consolidation with sell pressure over the following weeks with a break down to the 60-Day HMA on the Weekly at @ 8600.

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In hindsight I should have seen the 9k lows as a support area for a large bounce which I will not disregard again in future scenarios.

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Earlier today I was looking at the possibility of an Advance Block pattern forming on the Daily with declining volume...

An exhaustion of buying does seem to be in the works now...

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Increasing volume with exhaustion candles, overbought Stochastic, 1 Hour & 4 Hour opened bearish

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BTC made a parabolic rises much higher than I anticipated but came to a swift rejection at 12,340 creating a Shooting Star on the Daily below the 175-Day Hull Moving Average. On this high time frame I now see an Ascending Broadening Wedge (information on this pattern can be found in Charles Bulkoskis's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns and on his PatternSite), with the move from 9258 to 12,340 being the partial rise found in 60% of examples of this pattern which moves to the projected target (lowest point in the formation) 81% of the time after a downward breakout

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Full-on rollover of 8/20/60/175-Day HMA's on the 1Hour

Rejection of the 175-Day HMA on the Daily which is also the same level as the 60-Day HMA on the 3Day chart

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Where have I seen this before?

Ah...yes...

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Many will denegrate the use of an inverse chart (even I used to) but sometimes it does help to get a different perspective- hence why people say a "fresh set of eyes can see what strained eyes can't"...here is a look on theDaily inverse chart that I worked on late last night...you can see the similarities where we currently are in price action compared to the ATH (ATL in the inverse chart) of December '17

A closer look shows price getting pushed up out of a Descending Wedge with built up bullish divergence on Stochastic RSI and and a Double Bottom Bullish Divergence on the RSI with the 200-Day Hull Moving Average piercing through price action-just as it did January 7th of 2018

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After closing the Daily a Hanging Man candle price is now below the 8/20/175-Day HMA's

The 4Hour is below the 8/20/60-Day and the the 60 has flipped bearish

And it has broken back down out of the Ascending Broadening Wedge causing me to believe that the move back up after breaking down the first time was a throwback/whipsaw and a continuation down should ensue toward the 11,100 area to start

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Daily candle closed below the open of the previous day's Hanging Man candle (bearish) and opened below the Daily 8/20/and 200-Day Hull MA (bearish)

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Inverse chart for some perspective

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Wake up bulls...for your own sake.

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Daily Close below the 200-Day HMA at the top and now resistance marks a significant turning point in the market

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I have been watching the 4 Hour 60 DHMA *blue) and the 200 DHMA (orange) for the Bearish cross...

The drop could happen sooner than expected to bring the Weekly down for a more Bearish close, as price is also being pushed down by the 8 DMA

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Weekly closed below the 20-Day HMA (red) after price was rejected from 12,340 which was also a rejection of the Monthly 8-Day HMA.

Low TF bearish divergences are already in play with an official Bearish Cross of the 60- (blue) and 200-Day HMA (orange).

Lookng to 10,550 next

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Possible new Rising Wedge here, keeping an eye on these trend lines...

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There it goes...

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Have been traveling all day with limited ability to post charts.

Supports below here are the Weekly 60-Day HMA @9300 followed by the 3Day 175-Day HMA @7300

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Potential 3 Black Crows candlestick pattern in the works, which could bring the price down to the Weekly 175 DHMA near 9300...

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Price rejected 10,530 with a heavy resistance area, Bearish Divergence on the 4Hour...looking to see the reaction at 10,250-hold or fall out of the Triangle

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Lower open on the Daily with price now above the Daily 8 and 20 DHMA...

While the 3Day still points to the downside with the 8 and 20 DHMA's pushing down...

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If the following chart is what you are thinking because of whatever you may have seen on Tradingview or twitter...

Then allow me to clarify something about Bitcoin...

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Or maybe you are thinking and seeing this...

Then I'll show you this...

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Ascending Broadening Wedge broken to the downside, retested, and rejected...

I think its possible we range a bit longer here as bulls are determined to continue longing and getting liquidated... most likely mid-October for the 60-Day HMA (blue) and the 175-Day HMA (orange) to Bear Cross

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Weekly testing the 60 DHMA with a cross in the next few weeks

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Roughly an $800 1Hour red candle today following yesterdays news of the CSW case. I expect a lot more selling and a continuation of the Bear market as I projected. No telling how fast this will play out but the fact that price has now broken below the lower line of the center channel of my pitchfork since the 3100 bottom it would be wise to assume a test of the far end of the last lower channel

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There is also a Bearish Cross on the Daily Stochastic RSI and a downward turn on RSI rejected of its 50-center line.

Price has moved below the 60-Day HMA on the Weekly...

With only the 3Day 175-Day HMA at 8763...

And the Monthly 20-Day HMA at 7203 below it for support

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Should 10250 hold as support then I would look Long for a retest of 11170, which is coincidentally the cross between the descending upper trend line and the center line of the pitchfork, as well as a resistance level...A pickup of the 60 and 175-Day HMA's are bullish here but there is also the RSI and Stochastic which are overbought with the RSI at its highest levels on the 1 and 4 Hours since August 5th...

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Okay, not saying this is a probablitiy but I did just see it in the chart and I feel that I need to post it here to be able to sleep at night...

These numbers are not perfect but it is a harmonic pattern that would be followed by a bearish breakdown...still early to tell. My overall analysis has not changed.

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Resistance established...looking to the Daily close here

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A peep back at the inverse, still looking good...

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This looks pretty obvious now...

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Broken down into the large lower channel for the first time...I expect 6400 if not lower

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Nearing the bottom of the pitchfork...I would expect to see a Dead Cat Bounce at 6400; 9100 will be strong resistance from here on

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Losing 7500 will be devestating...

likiley a run on stops and into the mid to low 6ks, to start.

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Pretty simple here...

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First of all, I did not expect such a strong move yesterday to retest the Triangle...As of now holding a range between 9080-9500 4H Overbought...

Rejection of the 3Day 175 DHMA...

All depends on Today's candle-close Red = bear onslaught continues; close green, should test Weekly 60 DHMA

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You are here...

...AGAIN.

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The 29th closed below the 8-Day HMA and here is a look at whats happened whenever thats been the case...

And now the Daily just opened below the 20-Day HMA...

Price currently testing 9080 a loss here would probably mean 8668...losing that would get ugly

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Current state of Bitcoin on the Daily...

About to close today below the 8 and 20-Day HMA's...

What that has meant in the past...

About to close the Monthly below the 8 and 20-Day HMA's...

Its gonna be a cold winter for bitcoin.

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Today is the day...

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Looking at 8372 from here for a bounce

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3Day 175-Day HMA just flipped bearish. Looking back in the chart anyone can clearly see that this does not bode well for any new highs any time soon. Still projecting a an extended bear market.

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A week to close the Monthly and it looks brutal right now. A massive drop could be in order in December.

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IMHO this is the best case scenario that can be ANTICPATED, using the Fibonacci Time tool that I have been watching for a while now (it has been correct for reversal 7 times now)...

BTCookieMonster

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