Volatility Coming Back to BTC1! & BTCUSD NEXT WEEK!?
Updated
Dear traders,
Welcome to my updated analysis of the Bitcoin futures price. Please hit the like button, leave comments and follow me If you enjoy my analysis style. This will give me a huge support to bring you quality contents regularly!
In the past few weeks, I posted a series of articles, “Analysis of BTCUSD & BTC1! -- Another Approach”, showing my perspective of the recent movement of BTC1!. I pointed out that the gap (generated on 5/8/20) from 9275 and 9820 USD was crucial to watch. Either below 9275 or above 9820 USD would bring high volatility to this beast. However, the BTC1! price kept performing neutral and distributing in this range. When bulls and bears expected some signs of movement, they were all disappointed over and over again. Yesterday, it just went back to the level of 9275 USD again, offsetting all the gains and losses in the past three weeks.
Now, I think it is time for this asset breaking neutrality and volatility is imminent. Three scenarios are highly possible to play out NEXT WEEK based on several facts:
1. MACD has spent 50 days in the bearish zone. This is an extremely long period. The oscillator must reset and might cross bullish very soon.
2. RSI just broke out a descending wedge and retested the upper boundary.
3. The gap is going to intercept the rising channel in the next week, which means that it must decide a direction to move.
On the basis of the above parameters, 3 scenarios will likely play out very soon. Please see the chart.
Path A (indicated by the magenta color): MACD crosses and sustains bullish, with RSI bouncing higher. If we treat the recent movement as a bull pennant (neglect the upper and lower shadows), the pole will bring it to a target as high as approximately 13595 USD. But be aware: the price might be reversed at 12640 USD to form a bearish cypher, which may bring it down to 6420 USD. If a major low forms from here, I feel bullish! A new macro structure will give us a HH and HL.
Path B (indicated by the orange color): Either MACD crosses bullish but turns into bearish immediately, or MACD spent longer time in the bearish zone. Then we most likely to have the price going down the VPVR support zone (approximately 6420 to 7440 USD). Again, MACD must reset. So the price may bounce up from this region and a potential inverse H&S might play out. The target could be at 14345 USD.
Path C (indicated by the cyan color): Same conditions with the Path B, but MACD does not want to reset. Well, this will be very bad for Bitcoiners but the chance is not high in my humble opinion.
Let’s see which scenario will play out. Have fun!
HakoneDream
Welcome to my updated analysis of the Bitcoin futures price. Please hit the like button, leave comments and follow me If you enjoy my analysis style. This will give me a huge support to bring you quality contents regularly!
In the past few weeks, I posted a series of articles, “Analysis of BTCUSD & BTC1! -- Another Approach”, showing my perspective of the recent movement of BTC1!. I pointed out that the gap (generated on 5/8/20) from 9275 and 9820 USD was crucial to watch. Either below 9275 or above 9820 USD would bring high volatility to this beast. However, the BTC1! price kept performing neutral and distributing in this range. When bulls and bears expected some signs of movement, they were all disappointed over and over again. Yesterday, it just went back to the level of 9275 USD again, offsetting all the gains and losses in the past three weeks.
Now, I think it is time for this asset breaking neutrality and volatility is imminent. Three scenarios are highly possible to play out NEXT WEEK based on several facts:
1. MACD has spent 50 days in the bearish zone. This is an extremely long period. The oscillator must reset and might cross bullish very soon.
2. RSI just broke out a descending wedge and retested the upper boundary.
3. The gap is going to intercept the rising channel in the next week, which means that it must decide a direction to move.
On the basis of the above parameters, 3 scenarios will likely play out very soon. Please see the chart.
Path A (indicated by the magenta color): MACD crosses and sustains bullish, with RSI bouncing higher. If we treat the recent movement as a bull pennant (neglect the upper and lower shadows), the pole will bring it to a target as high as approximately 13595 USD. But be aware: the price might be reversed at 12640 USD to form a bearish cypher, which may bring it down to 6420 USD. If a major low forms from here, I feel bullish! A new macro structure will give us a HH and HL.
Path B (indicated by the orange color): Either MACD crosses bullish but turns into bearish immediately, or MACD spent longer time in the bearish zone. Then we most likely to have the price going down the VPVR support zone (approximately 6420 to 7440 USD). Again, MACD must reset. So the price may bounce up from this region and a potential inverse H&S might play out. The target could be at 14345 USD.
Path C (indicated by the cyan color): Same conditions with the Path B, but MACD does not want to reset. Well, this will be very bad for Bitcoiners but the chance is not high in my humble opinion.
Let’s see which scenario will play out. Have fun!
HakoneDream
Note
The is the chart from BTCUSD. Potential way for the path A to play out. The pattern which has played out in lots of Alts. Can BTC follow their paths?
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