Moment of Truth for BTC
Updated
BTC looks set to breach the upper boundary of a triangle that has been forming since exploding down to 3700 last week. It should get back up to 9000 relatively quickly if it can stay above 6400 for a reasonable amount of time (meaning, closed daily or 4 hour candles above).
If it breaches the lower boundary instead, I will be placing limit orders for sub $1000. This is not financial advice obviously, this is simply my own personal medium term bias should there be a break to the upside or downside on this triangle. In the short term of course, it can just bounce between the sides of the triangle but a decisive move before the weekend is necessary to validate the triangle hypothesis.
Note that I did not take into account the spike higher following the Fed QE and stimulus announcement when drawing the triangle; this was most likely a one off algorithmic trading event and therefore not significant from a technical analysis perspective, although it does show where possible resistance might be (hint: it's the 200 Week MA).
If it breaches the lower boundary instead, I will be placing limit orders for sub $1000. This is not financial advice obviously, this is simply my own personal medium term bias should there be a break to the upside or downside on this triangle. In the short term of course, it can just bounce between the sides of the triangle but a decisive move before the weekend is necessary to validate the triangle hypothesis.
Note that I did not take into account the spike higher following the Fed QE and stimulus announcement when drawing the triangle; this was most likely a one off algorithmic trading event and therefore not significant from a technical analysis perspective, although it does show where possible resistance might be (hint: it's the 200 Week MA).
Trade active
Breached. Let's see if it sticks.Note
Initial Targets are at 5900 and 6450.Note
So far, anyone who took this trade would have been up 10% on spot (more on leverage) from 5500 to 6000 within the past 6 hours.Because we're going into the weekend now there's a risk of a CME gap being created if the price keeps going up through the weekend. I suspect that it will end the US trading day between 6000 to 6300, just below resistance. I personally do not like keeping positions open on weekends because there are often wild swings from bigger players (mining pool operators) trying to set up a CME gap. But I will be keeping this open and setting a tighter stop once 5900 becomes support for a move higher.
Trade closed: target reached
Love it when a plan comes together.
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