BTC - Bull Trap Short to 618 FIbonacci!
Hello Future Millionaires!
BTC has been in an epic bull run!!! Since September, we have seen BTC increase from 10K to almost 20K, but we have not yet seen any 'significant' pullbacks/corrections, like we did in the prior bull run! In the last bull run, it was 'healthy' to see 30-40% corrections, which is what we may end up seeing here. Currently, BTC has only seen a 16.5% correction, which is rather mild looking at prior price action during bull runs! The entry zone for this short would be a text book entry if this is a bull trap and BTC is to see further downside!
It is also likely that BTC comes down to around the weekly 21EMA, which historically speaking, it has found strong support at in the past! The likely target for a deeper retracement is the 618 Fibonacci, which I will include a chart for below. That aside, the BTC CMEs closed last week around 17K. CME gap theory shows us that it is highly likely that BTC pulls back to around that level, likely tomorrow AM upon market open!
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Technical Analysis
-BTC just had an almost 100% price increase from 10K to almost 20K, without any major pullbacks
-Historically speaking, BTC will pull back to the 618 Fibonacci and/or the weekly 21EMA on deeper retracements (typically 30-40% corrections from ATH)
-Possible bull trap forming now
-If see candles closing above 18331, then I will strongly consider closing this short and looking for a long as this setup will be invalidated
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Guide to My Charts
-The dark magenta horizontal lines are support/resistance 'zones'. If price pierces though one side of the support/resistance zone, it is likely to head to the next support/resistance zone!
-Yellow lines are typically used to chart out pattern formations and trend lines!
-The colored lines are MAs (Red: 10SMA, Yellow: 21EMA, Green: 55EMA, Blue: 89EMA, Purple: 200EMA, White: 200SMA, Maroon: 377EMA).
-Horizontal white and green lines may be Fibonacci levels. The 0.382 and the 0.618 Fibs are green and the rest are white.
-The Historical Volatility Percentile, RSI , and/or stochastics indicators are below the chart if displayed.
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Please smash the like and comment if you find value in this post! It helps show me that others are interested and motivates me to share more with the community!
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Entry: 18211.0
Entry Zone: 18620 - 18050
T1: 17895
T2: 17625
T3: 17250
T4: 16875
T5: 16547.5
Stop: 18773.5
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R:R: 2.96
Risk: 3.09%
Reward: 9.13%
Leverage: 15X
Leveraged Risk: 46.35%
Leveraged Reward: 136.95%
Risk Assessment: HIGH
---
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice; I am not a financial adviser. This information is not meant to be used for financial advice, nor trade ideas. These posts are simply a record of my technical analysis and potential trade setup ideas.
These posts are intended for educational purposes only. It is imperative that everyone conduct their own research prior to entering any trade.
BTC has been in an epic bull run!!! Since September, we have seen BTC increase from 10K to almost 20K, but we have not yet seen any 'significant' pullbacks/corrections, like we did in the prior bull run! In the last bull run, it was 'healthy' to see 30-40% corrections, which is what we may end up seeing here. Currently, BTC has only seen a 16.5% correction, which is rather mild looking at prior price action during bull runs! The entry zone for this short would be a text book entry if this is a bull trap and BTC is to see further downside!
It is also likely that BTC comes down to around the weekly 21EMA, which historically speaking, it has found strong support at in the past! The likely target for a deeper retracement is the 618 Fibonacci, which I will include a chart for below. That aside, the BTC CMEs closed last week around 17K. CME gap theory shows us that it is highly likely that BTC pulls back to around that level, likely tomorrow AM upon market open!
---
Technical Analysis
-BTC just had an almost 100% price increase from 10K to almost 20K, without any major pullbacks
-Historically speaking, BTC will pull back to the 618 Fibonacci and/or the weekly 21EMA on deeper retracements (typically 30-40% corrections from ATH)
-Possible bull trap forming now
-If see candles closing above 18331, then I will strongly consider closing this short and looking for a long as this setup will be invalidated
---
Guide to My Charts
-The dark magenta horizontal lines are support/resistance 'zones'. If price pierces though one side of the support/resistance zone, it is likely to head to the next support/resistance zone!
-Yellow lines are typically used to chart out pattern formations and trend lines!
-The colored lines are MAs (Red: 10SMA, Yellow: 21EMA, Green: 55EMA, Blue: 89EMA, Purple: 200EMA, White: 200SMA, Maroon: 377EMA).
-Horizontal white and green lines may be Fibonacci levels. The 0.382 and the 0.618 Fibs are green and the rest are white.
-The Historical Volatility Percentile, RSI , and/or stochastics indicators are below the chart if displayed.
---
Please smash the like and comment if you find value in this post! It helps show me that others are interested and motivates me to share more with the community!
---
Entry: 18211.0
Entry Zone: 18620 - 18050
T1: 17895
T2: 17625
T3: 17250
T4: 16875
T5: 16547.5
Stop: 18773.5
--
R:R: 2.96
Risk: 3.09%
Reward: 9.13%
Leverage: 15X
Leveraged Risk: 46.35%
Leveraged Reward: 136.95%
Risk Assessment: HIGH
---
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice; I am not a financial adviser. This information is not meant to be used for financial advice, nor trade ideas. These posts are simply a record of my technical analysis and potential trade setup ideas.
These posts are intended for educational purposes only. It is imperative that everyone conduct their own research prior to entering any trade.
Note
Here we can see that BTC on the weekly typically finds very strong support on the yellow weekly 21EMA!We've already tested it for support a few times and if the trend continues, we're likely to see price action come back down to it.
Considering how bullish this last run has been, it would be healthy to see BTC retrace down to 13K-15K range!
If we do dip down that low, then I suspect we'll see new ATH within 3 months!
Yeehaw!
Note
Here is a more zoomed chart:Note
If breaks below 16.5K, there is a good chance price will come down to 15K. If price continues down, then we will likely see a reversal around the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci levels below! Likely areas for bullish continuation:
-$18335 (bear trap; current price action)
-15K (the 0.382 Fibonacci)
-14K (the 0.5 Fibonacci)
-13K (the 0.618 Fibonacci)
-The weekly 21EMA
General Inquiries: t.me/cryptoguru369
Twitter: twitter.com/CryptoGuru369
Twitter: twitter.com/CryptoGuru369
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
General Inquiries: t.me/cryptoguru369
Twitter: twitter.com/CryptoGuru369
Twitter: twitter.com/CryptoGuru369
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.