Bitcoin Accum. Phase REVISED
Assumptions: BTC moving into a consolidation phase with the next halving approaching late March 2024 (Est.) The expectation is that BTC will revisit the upper regression band 50k around the time of halving. This potentially correlates to the timing of the greater US recession.
Marco: Soft to Moderate landing recession
- Fed funds terminal rate 5% with a hold and potential cut late 2023/early 2024
Behavior modeled similar to 2015/2016
- Trading above the 52 week SMA
- Potential retesting of 52 week SMA
- Green, Yellow, and Pink lines outline the 2016 behavior adjusted to fit the regression bands (Red and Green Shaded Area)
DCA BTC Realized Price Log Regression
- Potential retesting the lower regression band
- Mostly trades within the realized regression band (Green)
Marco: Soft to Moderate landing recession
- Fed funds terminal rate 5% with a hold and potential cut late 2023/early 2024
Behavior modeled similar to 2015/2016
- Trading above the 52 week SMA
- Potential retesting of 52 week SMA
- Green, Yellow, and Pink lines outline the 2016 behavior adjusted to fit the regression bands (Red and Green Shaded Area)
DCA BTC Realized Price Log Regression
- Potential retesting the lower regression band
- Mostly trades within the realized regression band (Green)
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