Updated

Bitcoin 2019

Indicators on this chart:

-Fibonacci retracement of the bear market 2018 ATH - Pivot low (black)

-Fibonacci retracement of recovery market 2019 Pivot low - 2019 High ($13,880) (green)

-Green rectangles highlight confluence levels

-Downward parallel channel (current pattern)

Note

The 30MA on the daily timeframe has emerged as resistance.

Note

The price reached the channel upper boundary and went for the breakout but an exhaustion candle was formed, the upper long wick is a signal of the offer in form of strong selling appeared when the price overpassed $12,300

Chart #btcusd 6h Bitstmap

Note

*Bitstamp

Note

Bitcoin has been inside this downward parallel channel for the last 43 days, from 3-4 days ago the price has been consolidating at the channel upper boundary, every time that this level of resistance is tested an amount of offer is absorbed by the buyers.

Key levels:
Support: $11,400 -$11,200
Resistance: $12,000 -12,300

Chart #BTCUSD 6h Bitstamp

Note

Key levels:
Support: $11,400 -$11,200
Resistance: $12,000 -12,300

Chart #BTCUSD 6h Bitstamp

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Chart #BTCUSD 6h Bitstamp

Note

Bitcoin price has been falling for the last three days, the price dynamic is behaving quite different IMHO.
A possible pattern is started to appear, it is called "Three black crows".
To confirm this possible pattern the current day should print its close then re-assess the price dynamic.

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

Chart 3-day scale Bitstamp

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The price found support at the zone of confluence between Fibonacci levels and weekly support, the buyers managed to close the daily candle at $ 10,301.44; the possible pattern ("Three black crows")that was mentioned in the previous comment it has been nulled.

The dynamic has shown signals of weakness and the price has tested the support $9,500 - $9,800 (lower horizontal boundary)in a fourth time, every time the price hits the same level (support or resistance) it gets weaker.

Take a look at the chart below to find a further explanation.

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

The following chart is on a weekly scale view to have a macro perspective of the price dynamic.
For now, my perspective is slightly bearish. I will wait for the weekly close and re-assess the dynamic.

Chart BTCUSD weekly scale

Note

Several triangle patterns have been formed and completed successfully in the past, the dynamic of the last 50 days might be fit to a triangle pattern again.

The last weekly close was at $10,318.99 the price managed to bounce from the triangle base.

A descending triangle has two main components:

1) The hypotenuse: is a downward trendline that connects the consecutive lower highs (LH) and is the zone where the offer is located in the form of selling. In a few words is the Resistance zone.

2) The Base: is a lower horizontal boundary that works as a support is a range of prices where the demand is located. The base represents a support zone.

Note: A pattern is not a pattern until its completed formation, a pattern can morph into anything during its formation, this is called morphology.

At the following chart, you can find further details.

Chart BTCUSD weekly scale Bitstamp

Note

On a daily view, it can be observed how the base of the triangle has been tested several times over the course of the pattern and it has been working as a reliable support.

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

An intra-monthly view to have a perspective of the macro, the monthly candle still has 10 days in front to close.

Note: I use the prefix "intra" to refer a time frame that has not been closed yet. It gives us a snapshot within the development.

Chart monthly scale Bitstamp

Note

The price is held by the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level.

At the following chart, some levels of supports are highlighted:

-Fibonacci retracement of recovery market 2019 Pivot low - 2019 High ($13,880)

-Horizontal boundaries from previous major patterns.

Note: My perspective remains slightly bearish

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

Bitcoin has been inside the downward parallel channel for the last 59 days, the last time that the price reached the channel upper boundary ($12325), the dynamic failed in the breakout so the sellers were aggressive and the price decreased.

After making a similar low located in the weekly support zone the price has been consolidating between the previous monthly closes.

At the chart below some key levels from higher time frames are shown on a daily scale

Note:
-A weekly close below the weekly support would be on the favour of a possible breakdown.
-A weekly close above the higher weekly close of 2019 would be on the favour of a possible breakout.

Chart BTCUSD 1D Bitstamp

Note

The price dynamic is narrowing its movement range.

The following chart is a snapshot of the current state on a weekly view.

Note:
"You can't see the forest for the trees"

Chart BTCUSD 1W Bitstamp

Note

Bitcoin has broken the support of $9800-$9900 where the price held for 13 days, in a daily time frame the 28th August candle closed below this range of prices and now it is flirting with breach the weekly support.

The 13 consolidation days over the support mentioned allowed the formation of a head and shoulders continuation pattern with a neckline located at this horizontal support and a pivot high $10955.48 as head of the pattern.

*H&S main structure:
- Neckline = $9800 -$9900
- Head and shoulder: magenta labels
- Possible target : $8700- $8900

*Current support = weekly support

Take a look at the chart below to find a further explanation

Note:
-My perspective is bearish

-Think on the price dynamic as a ladder every support is a rung but sometimes the rung fails.

Note

Descending triangle pattern:

A descending triangle has two main components:

1) The hypotenuse: is a downward trendline that connects the consecutive lower highs (LH) and is the zone where the offer is located in the form of selling. In a few words is the Resistance zone.

2) The Base: is a lower horizontal boundary that works as a support is a range of prices where the demand is located. The base represents a support zone.

On a daily view, it can be observed how the base of the triangle has been tested several times over the course of the pattern and it has been working as a reliable support.

Every time that a support or resistance is tested this level gets weaker.

Today, bitcoin is flirting with a test of triangle's base again.

Note: A pattern is not a pattern until its completed formation, a pattern can morph into anything during its formation, this is called morphology.

At the following chart, you can find further details.

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

A monthly view:

The August monthly candle printed its close at $ 9524.15, it is below the July's close but the August's low is a Higher Low (HL).

The support level $9100 -$9500 stills holding the price.

Chart BTCUSD monthly scale Bitstamp

Note

Regardless of the formation of any pattern the dynamic of the last 2 months has behaved under these two main guidelines:
- A lower horizontal boundary working as a support.
- Consecutive formation of Lower Highs (LH), that can be connected in a down trendline working as a resistance.

Break this market behaviour could deploy a movement with a wider range.

Chart daily scale BTCUSD Bitstamp

Note

A consolidation phase of two months and going on. The weekly support has been working as a reliable support.

"An instrument (Stock, ETF, Index, commodities or cryptocurrencies) price is either in a trending phase or in a consolidation period. During strong trend periods prices move uninterrupted from one price level to another. During consolidations, prices move in both directions without producing any meaningful or sustained price change and will form well-defined support and resistance areas on the charts. A support range represents a concentration of demand, and a resistance range represents a concentration of supply" -Aksel Kibar

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

On 6th September, the price reached by fourth-time the parallel channel upper boundary and the offer appeared again in the form of strong selling.

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

The descending triangle.
The downtrend line was tested one more time and the resistance effect emerged producing a price retracement.

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

A 11 week-long descending triangle as a major pattern and a rectangle chart pattern as a minor pattern.

The price dynamic has formed a 26 day-long rectangle pattern with a horizontal boundary acting as resistance at $11,000 level and a lower horizontal boundary acting as support at $9,400 level. Break this pattern with an upside breakout or with a downside breakdown could deploy a movement of a wider extension.

Chart BTCUSD daily scale Bitstamp

Note

A long term view on a monthly scale.
The red line represents the 7 MA monthly

I have under observation the approaching between 7MA and the spot price.

Chart BLX BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin monthly scale

Note

A long term view on a monthly scale.

The red line represents the 7MA monthly

The price is testing the 7MA.

Chart BLX BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin monthly scale

Note

A long term view on a monthly scale.

The orange line represents the 7MA monthly

Chart BLX BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin monthly scale

anibalsantaella

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anibalsantaella

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