Bitcoin, 4 Jan: Do something!
Hello traders, happy New Year 2022!
Bitcoin has been ranging since the Solar eclipse on 4 Dec, with a brief rally on winter solstice that was sold off soon after. Crypto was unimpressed by the “tax loss realisation short squeeze” in SPX and didn’t seem to care about yesterday’s 8% yield spike either.
So, when will it ‘do something’?
Geometry:
BTC currently has support on the pitchfork median. The level is the same as the 1-year PoC in the volume profile. This level has been tested 4 times.
Moving Averages:
We are below the Keltner median and the 21 day MA in bear territory.
Oscillators:
The Stochastic is oversold and due to move up. The MFI has been pointing upwards and is >50 which is bullish.
Elliott:
ETH has retraced precisely 50%, while BTC has wicked into the 50-62% retracement area. We can count an ABC to the downside (in blue). Most Elliott analysts expect a complex bearish correction towards 30k.
Correlations:
SPX is at resistance but the Elliott count indicates that the stock market could move even higher. DXY is at a long-term resistance and should go lower or range if equities continue their rally.
Summary:
TA signals are mixed. The 42-35k zone holds massive liquidity in the order books. But we need to remember that BTC front-ran demand zones in the past, leaving the bagless to fomo-in at a higher price.
The idea is to continue building long exposure if BTC can move above (and hold) the 21-day MA in a new active sequence. Support on 50k is another prerequisite to increase longs.
So, while we want BTC to 'do something', it would be wise to 'do nothing' at this point, until BTC reveals its intentions.
Bitcoin has been ranging since the Solar eclipse on 4 Dec, with a brief rally on winter solstice that was sold off soon after. Crypto was unimpressed by the “tax loss realisation short squeeze” in SPX and didn’t seem to care about yesterday’s 8% yield spike either.
So, when will it ‘do something’?
Geometry:
BTC currently has support on the pitchfork median. The level is the same as the 1-year PoC in the volume profile. This level has been tested 4 times.
Moving Averages:
We are below the Keltner median and the 21 day MA in bear territory.
Oscillators:
The Stochastic is oversold and due to move up. The MFI has been pointing upwards and is >50 which is bullish.
Elliott:
ETH has retraced precisely 50%, while BTC has wicked into the 50-62% retracement area. We can count an ABC to the downside (in blue). Most Elliott analysts expect a complex bearish correction towards 30k.
Correlations:
SPX is at resistance but the Elliott count indicates that the stock market could move even higher. DXY is at a long-term resistance and should go lower or range if equities continue their rally.
Summary:
TA signals are mixed. The 42-35k zone holds massive liquidity in the order books. But we need to remember that BTC front-ran demand zones in the past, leaving the bagless to fomo-in at a higher price.
The idea is to continue building long exposure if BTC can move above (and hold) the 21-day MA in a new active sequence. Support on 50k is another prerequisite to increase longs.
So, while we want BTC to 'do something', it would be wise to 'do nothing' at this point, until BTC reveals its intentions.
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