BTC Update! Correction coming!
I zoomed out again and checked the FIBS, and have revised my idea of where sub-wave 3 of the bigger wave 3 (from March 2020) ends ... I believe is it the 24.3K December peak and i think this because that would make sub-wave 3 a 1.618 extension of sub-wave 1.
The retrace in December was at 0.147 ... 15% correction is small but on a 4 wave during a super-bull run it's perfectly acceptable (I previously presumed the larger correction was the end of sub-wave 3, but its peak only made a 1.0 extension of the previous sub-wave)
So if the FIBs are right, then 1.618 from the peak of sub-wave 3 and its correction would propel BTC's price to 45.3K for a natural sub-wave 5.
Of course sub-wave 5 could extend (~ approx 59K) but we've been parabolic for a while, and a proper correction would be both healthy for the bull run and a massive trading opportunity.
If sub-wave 5 is going to extend, then the price will retrace from my 45.3K level to, and bounce from around 36.4K (0.382 retrace of probable peak and a repeat 0.147 of the local run up), and then extend on to something like my previous upper price targets (59K-74K)
If sub-wave 5 completes at 45.3K, so that larger wave 3 has completed, then the correction will be the 4-wave of the whole uptrend since March 2020 so it would have to be a bigun ... at least to the 0.382 @ 28.8K, failing that, just above the 50% mark at 24.5 K.
CAUTION: I think this is unlikely, but Bitcoin often does the unexpected , so it could even break the previous top to the downside and bottom out AROUND 19.2K (the 0.618 retrace) ... if it goes below this, my structure of things is wrong and I will have to re-evaluate.
The 21 week EMA is likely to be a bounce, and if it coincides with the golden ratio multiplier band we are in, and sits within the 0.382 - 0.5 of the big wave range, then I am going to go all in on leverage, with the little bit of BTC I have (now i've got it up by 100% to just 0.033 BTC) .... so if any of you out there appreciate my efforts and make some much loved BTC out of it, a few SATS sent my way would be thoroughly appreciated - receive address : bc1qduq8xl5qsj8qzz2kpp2jvkmhrlthegaqgxuwc3
If you catch the main correction well, the next up-wave will take us to ridiculous heights.
This is not trading advice (I am an amateur that likes the fibonacci shape of things and the Elliot wave idea), so do your own zooming in and out to check for local market structures for yourself before you decide its bottomed out or not.
Strap in, pay attention to the price action, and wait for confirmation, otherwise the FOMO demon will get you.
The retrace in December was at 0.147 ... 15% correction is small but on a 4 wave during a super-bull run it's perfectly acceptable (I previously presumed the larger correction was the end of sub-wave 3, but its peak only made a 1.0 extension of the previous sub-wave)
So if the FIBs are right, then 1.618 from the peak of sub-wave 3 and its correction would propel BTC's price to 45.3K for a natural sub-wave 5.
Of course sub-wave 5 could extend (~ approx 59K) but we've been parabolic for a while, and a proper correction would be both healthy for the bull run and a massive trading opportunity.
If sub-wave 5 is going to extend, then the price will retrace from my 45.3K level to, and bounce from around 36.4K (0.382 retrace of probable peak and a repeat 0.147 of the local run up), and then extend on to something like my previous upper price targets (59K-74K)
If sub-wave 5 completes at 45.3K, so that larger wave 3 has completed, then the correction will be the 4-wave of the whole uptrend since March 2020 so it would have to be a bigun ... at least to the 0.382 @ 28.8K, failing that, just above the 50% mark at 24.5 K.
CAUTION: I think this is unlikely, but Bitcoin often does the unexpected , so it could even break the previous top to the downside and bottom out AROUND 19.2K (the 0.618 retrace) ... if it goes below this, my structure of things is wrong and I will have to re-evaluate.
The 21 week EMA is likely to be a bounce, and if it coincides with the golden ratio multiplier band we are in, and sits within the 0.382 - 0.5 of the big wave range, then I am going to go all in on leverage, with the little bit of BTC I have (now i've got it up by 100% to just 0.033 BTC) .... so if any of you out there appreciate my efforts and make some much loved BTC out of it, a few SATS sent my way would be thoroughly appreciated - receive address : bc1qduq8xl5qsj8qzz2kpp2jvkmhrlthegaqgxuwc3
If you catch the main correction well, the next up-wave will take us to ridiculous heights.
This is not trading advice (I am an amateur that likes the fibonacci shape of things and the Elliot wave idea), so do your own zooming in and out to check for local market structures for yourself before you decide its bottomed out or not.
Strap in, pay attention to the price action, and wait for confirmation, otherwise the FOMO demon will get you.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.