Bitcoin Range complete opposite of previous - Bullish Caution

Since January 2023, Bitcoin has risen to its current Value in 2 steps distinct and we sit on the 3rd step now.
But this Step is so VERY different and the potential Fragility exists
The chart explains this clearly.

The First step was in April 2023 and saw PA descend till June and remain in range till around October that year and saw a total retrace of around -20%. Lower Range Support was Horizontal and we were just above the 0.618 Fib extension

The 2nd began in March 2024, PA initially descended till May and then bounced back, remaining in range till October and saw a total retrace of around -25.6%. Lower Range Support was descending and the 1.618 Fib Extension was just below and was tested directly in the week of 5th August

Both began in Q2 ( approx) and ended in Q4 and both had an approx retrace of around -23%
Both were Very similar in date range, start and end. And Both were above the 618 Fib extension.

This time we have entered the "Step" in December ( Q4 ) and the under laying Support is Ascending. More than that, the line of resistance is the 2.618 Fib extension.

And this has led to a tricky situation really.
For a Start, we are in a tight pennant. The line of Resistance above is close
We do not have the time to Range and that pennant Apex is in late April. PA tends to react BEFORE we hit the APEX of triangles

The Ascending support has origins in 2017 and is the same line that PA used to Bounce higher in 2021 to reach the ATH in Nov. It is strong and we do not want to loose this.
But PA is Very OverBought and needs to cool off. When PA bounced of this line of Support in 2021, MACD was back down to Neutral. We are currently up high.
We need to repeat what we saw in previous "Steps" and let MACD cool off. It has begun on the weekly, but only Just turned Bearish

So what can we do ?
What seems to be happening is that PA is managing to remain in this triangle with an ascending support and a Very tight price range. We just saw this morning that PA has once again managed to bounce off this line after a sudden drop last night. Bulls Caught it on the line and we rise again

But what I have noticed is also how the Bitcoin Transaction count has lowered in the same period and maybe This is how we are managing to remain in this pattern ?
Less Transactions leads to less Volatility and so we keep a more stable Price range ?

Data from CRYPTOQUANT as TV does not do this metric ( wish they would )
Step 1
30 April 2023 ( Step 1 ) Transaction count was around 569K at start of that step to a Low of 445K on June 30 in Mid range
Step 2
From Feb Q1 2024, ( just beofre Step 2) we saw a continually rising transaction count that led to a peak of 671K on 22nd April. The Range has already begun by this point. 541K was the range low in August

Step 3, Current situation
As BTC PA rose Higher, we had transaction at nearly 850K but as we approached the range high we are currently in, Transaction count dropped dramatically, to 412K on Dec 16. to a Low around 398K in Mid December.
On Feb 9th ( yesterday ), we are back down to 385K

Is it this Low and currently descending Transaction count that is helping to keep PA in the Tight Range ?
Low Traffic will lead to less volatility but it maybe a fine line before Price Drops due to seemingly Lack on interest in the asset ?
Either way, We are in a Tight Triangle, currently with a Range height of around 10K
This is like a Balloon Full of Air, Getting SQUEEZED
Something has to go Pop at some point.
Technically, this has to be Lower and this could be pointing towards a TOP for now.
Maybe we are about to repeat the 2021 pattern of ATH early in the year, retrace and go for a New ATH in Q4
For me, this seems very possible - Unless PA breaks over that 2.618 Fib line.
We are under considerable and mounting pressure from the ascending Line of support
Maybe that line of support is strong enough to push us through ?
But be under NO illusion. Bitcoin Pa is under Huge strain right now but with strong corporate hands holding it steady, maybe......
Stay Tuned for The continuing Story of BITCOIN rise to greatness

Orriginal

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Orriginal

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