Updated

THE FINAL ROAD TO DOUBLE TOP! (Hopefully!)

Here is my updated analysis on the bullish fractal I have been calling for the last few days. My first attempt was pretty close and was based on very little information, I then had a bit of analysis paralysis and updated it twice before reverting back to the original. I have now decided to update again based on taking some time away from the computer and having a re-look at what has developed.

First step - I will be shorting from 10,925-11,075 with the shorts laddered in at various intervals. In the past we have always hit the very top of the pattern which in this case is 11,070; however this is not guaranteed so I have short ready to be entered lower than this. Stop loss for the short is 11,250. (NOTE: We will probably drop a bit lower to 10,400ish before the final push up to 11K)

We will then head down to either the bottom of the purple triangle or somewhere into the blue zone. As we have not hit this level yet, we can't tell exactly where - just that it will be somewhere within there around 9,500ish. I will then go long all the way to the eventual double top. Stop loss for the long is 9250.

From the double top it is a huge SHORT all the way to the bottom (between $1.8K and $3K) when the actual bull run to a new ATH will start.

Marked as neutral as it is SHORT>LONG>SHORT!

Note

Probably going to move my top for the shorts up to 11,400 and have some extra short orders set for about 11,200-11,300 just in case we go slightly higher.

Note

Another possibility is that by reaching 11,090 it is the double tap I was expected as part of the diamond top reversal. Looking back at the last time this bullish fractal came along, it actually broke to the down side and kept going. This is an equally plausible scenario to be VERY mindful of! The link to the diamond top reversal double tap idea is:

Diamond Top Reversal Breakdown! Wait for retest of 10,700~ SHORT

Note

As per my note: (NOTE: We will probably drop a bit lower to 10,400ish before the final push up to 11K) - we have recently hit the 10,400's so it shouldn't be too long before the push up to 11K. I have moved my short orders laddered up to 11,450 with a stop above 11,550.

Note

Have moved stops above 11,600. Looking at the current situation I am expecting we touch the yellow line one more time before a strong move up. We will likely go as high as the red dotted line. I have amended short orders to cover up to 11,550. If we go this high then it is likely the bearish scenario will prevail and we will not see a double top.

Note

Looking for a possible further drop down on the next hourly to 10,150 before we go up again.

Note

Smack bang into my target. Albeit it, it went slightly longer. I am long to red dotted line and will move my stops up as we move higher.

Note

Expecting one more wick down to 10,325ish in the next couple hours as per the second target highlighted below. Once this is hit, it is up, up, up to our target zone. My entry for this long is 10,178 and I have my stop already set in profit at 10,250. Once we wick down to 10,325ish - and move up; my stop will move up with it.

Note

Not as likely to have another wick down as I last expected. We are now on top of the 200 MA one hour, if we can hold above it for the next 40 mins, we should rocket up very shortly after.

Note

Didn't wick down quite as low as I expected, but never the less - I would say we are about 4-5 hours away from the big green candle coming. Stop loss has been moved further into profit at 10.400.

Note

Ascending triangle to take us to our target:

Note

This is looking pretty toppy. We might not hit the red dotted line, so I am starting to close my longs and load in some shorts. Current PNL (ROI%) on Deribit from long entry at 10,178 is +737.55%. I also decided to enter a high margin long (75X) on Bitmex from 10,500 yesterday which is at 282.23% ROE.

Current short entry is 10,973 and I have additional entries laddered up to the red dotted line (as far as 10,550). Stop loss is 10,600.

Note

Bearish ascending wedge looks set for one more wick to 11,070ish before we go down.

Note

Temporary stall at support of bearish wedge. Fisher Transform cross and parabolic sar flip = fall inevitable to 10,150ish for another temporary reprieve, before final fall to bottom of triangle. We don't know where we will land yet, but it will be somewhere in the blue area (or just on top). From there we range for a day or two before finally deciding whether we are bear to the bottom or bull for the double top.

Butcher_of_Bitmex

Related publications

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.