Bitcoin Daily Update (day 303)
b]Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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Consensio: P < S MA < bullish L MA < bearish M MA - Price below a bullish L MA can represent a good buying opportunity.
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel inside bear channel
Horizontals: S: $3,561 | R: $3,709 & $4,000
Trendline: Connect end of March 2018 to bounce on Nov 27, 2018. Connect bottom of Feb 5 to bottom of Dec 7th.
Parabolic SAR: $4,052
Futures Curve: Backwardation maintaining > 3.5% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Closed below S MA. Watching for it to close below 22,700
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0249% | Funding rates from last couple days are very bullish
TD’ Sequential: R4
Ichimoku Cloud: I am amazed by how the price continues to stick to the bottom edge. Barely closed inside today and just close a bullish TK Cross and bullish Kumo Twist
Relative Strength Index: Created new local low
Price Action: 24h: -0.5% | 2w: -4.8% | 1m: +9.1%
Bollinger Bands: Expecting a return the MA after closing below the bottom band. Look at how tight the 3d is squeezing!
Stochastic Oscillator: Entering oversold territory. Recent sell signal on 3d.
Summary: The bearish indicators are declining and the bullish indicators are building.
Most important bullish indicators to me right now:
Support holding strong at $3,500 following the selloff from a few days ago
Price below bullish L MA (can indicate being oversold in a bull trend)
Backwardation in the futures market
Ichimoku Cloud - The best entries can occur when multiple metrics flip simultaneously
Funding indicates shorts being overleveraged despite BTCUSDSHORTS pulling back to an area of support.
Most important bearish indicators to me right now:
We are still in a bear market
Bear channel appears to be taking over as the dominant pattern (not including hyperwave). If the top of the bear trend holds for another week or so then a retest of $3,200 would seem inevitable.
Stochastic sell signal on the 3d.
Over the last few days it appeared to be a much more even fight. Now the bulls appear to be taking over, however I will not be confident a bounce is coming until we close above the top of the bear channel. I plan on waiting to see if that happens before looking to add to my long exposure. Even though there are more bullish indicators the fact that we are still in a bear market could be all that it takes to continue the selloff.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P < S MA < bullish L MA < bearish M MA - Price below a bullish L MA can represent a good buying opportunity.
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel channel inside bear channel
Horizontals: S: $3,561 | R: $3,709 & $4,000
Trendline: Connect end of March 2018 to bounce on Nov 27, 2018. Connect bottom of Feb 5 to bottom of Dec 7th.
Parabolic SAR: $4,052
Futures Curve: Backwardation maintaining > 3.5% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Closed below S MA. Watching for it to close below 22,700
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0249% | Funding rates from last couple days are very bullish
TD’ Sequential: R4
Ichimoku Cloud: I am amazed by how the price continues to stick to the bottom edge. Barely closed inside today and just close a bullish TK Cross and bullish Kumo Twist
Relative Strength Index: Created new local low
Price Action: 24h: -0.5% | 2w: -4.8% | 1m: +9.1%
Bollinger Bands: Expecting a return the MA after closing below the bottom band. Look at how tight the 3d is squeezing!
Stochastic Oscillator: Entering oversold territory. Recent sell signal on 3d.
Summary: The bearish indicators are declining and the bullish indicators are building.
Most important bullish indicators to me right now:
Support holding strong at $3,500 following the selloff from a few days ago
Price below bullish L MA (can indicate being oversold in a bull trend)
Backwardation in the futures market
Ichimoku Cloud - The best entries can occur when multiple metrics flip simultaneously
Funding indicates shorts being overleveraged despite BTCUSDSHORTS pulling back to an area of support.
Most important bearish indicators to me right now:
We are still in a bear market
Bear channel appears to be taking over as the dominant pattern (not including hyperwave). If the top of the bear trend holds for another week or so then a retest of $3,200 would seem inevitable.
Stochastic sell signal on the 3d.
Over the last few days it appeared to be a much more even fight. Now the bulls appear to be taking over, however I will not be confident a bounce is coming until we close above the top of the bear channel. I plan on waiting to see if that happens before looking to add to my long exposure. Even though there are more bullish indicators the fact that we are still in a bear market could be all that it takes to continue the selloff.
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