BTC:USD 3hrly chart analysis (Holding support above 21 EMA)

By cybernetwork

Updated

See previous detailed analysis of BTC and comparison with traditional market:

BTC:USD manages to break above 61.8% Fib level.

Lividitium [BTC] analysis:

SPX normalised Bitcoin (XBT) chart analysis:

Updated traditional market (SPX) normalised Bitcoin (XBT) Chart

Traditional market (SPX) analysis:

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Note:[\b] Bearish if it breaks below 21 EMA.
Setting and constantly updating stop-loss level base on this.

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XBT/SPX ratio update:

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Dragon fly doji forming..

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Summary:
ATM, I'm just monitoring if the price continues to hold support above the 21 EMA.
If it falls below, then I'm bearish and my stop limit will trigger to pull me out of the market.
If it goes above the 61.8% Fib level at 6382 USD and holds, then I am actually bullish.
I think the traditional market has a significant chance to dip further on Monday. Whether or not BTC has decoupled or not, time will tell. Long term I'm bullish as Trump is printing loads of USD (banana republic style).

Trade active

Opening trade if candle closes above the 61.8% Fib level (Note: here, drawn from the start of the dip to the bottom of the dip instead).

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.. will constantly update stop-limits to protect any gains even before target is met.

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Still waiting for buy-in condition to be met (i.e. break above and candle closes above 61.8% Fib, and finds support).

Order cancelled

Price broke below 21 EMA.
Trade invalidated w/o entry.

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Now again waiting for the price to pierce and hold above the 61.8% Fib level.

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Taking a look at the very short timeframe (15 mins) chart:

Breaking over and supported by the thick yellow 1400 SMA line.

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Descending channel Zoomed out:

Zoomed in: Broke out higher. Buying back in if breaks above 61.8% Fib level and hold (as before).

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Possible target if entry condition is met:

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Being more aggressive and starting to cost-averaging in now, while setting stop-losses as per earlier planned on Mar 21 above.

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Short-term bullish.
Still need to break and hold above 7161 USD for me to become mid-to-long-term bullish again.

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Far-longer-term look:
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With the "Banana Republic" style "quantitative easing" and "infinite liquidity" (i.e. money printing) not just in the US, but Europe, UK, Japan, and China as well, below is my comparison between Fiat (centralized manipulated currencies) vs. Bitcoin (the decentralized internet of value).

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Fiat, manipulated by centralized authority. Value is based on trust to said centralized authority.

Bitcoin, presently highly speculative and volatile asset due to low market liquidity (akin to a penny stock with similarly low market capitalization). Value is determined purely by market demand (mostly speculative trading at the moment). However Bitcoin's SUPPLY cannot be manipulated and cannot be confiscated by the government, nor can it be shut down due to its decentralized and adaptive nature. Unlike the heavy solid Gold, you can "carry" Bitcoin to anywhere in the world with you (undetected/unconfiscatable) just by remembering a 12-24 words phrase to re-generate the private key.

Base layer (layer 1) of BTC is slow and can only have a very limited transaction rate (still faster and way cheaper than international transfers via Swift).
However, this could be increased in the future with more miners as well as with consensus among majority of the miners to increase block-size to fit the growing needs. Further, 2nd layer solutions, such as the lightning network is already being built to allow for almost instant and "zero fees" transfers, while layer 1 will simply act as the highly secure settlement layer into the future.

Wallets can get hacked due to poor security practice. Centralised crypto exchanges can get hacked (they similar to centralized banks). But it is virtually impossible to hack the actual Bitcoin network.

Still not very user-friendly to use atm, but like with the internet, this will naturally improve as adoption and integration to existing devices grows.
Significant friction of entry (i.e. converting Fiat into Bitcoin), but have significant improved compared to just 5 years ago.

Certain more authoritarian governments have tried to shut down exchanges and trading, however, P2P exchange persists under the radar regardless. Instant international transfer of large amount with comparatively negligible fees compared via outdated and sluggish banking systems relying on Swift.

A presently highly risky short-term investment, with not much real-world use as of yet other than for speculative trading within developed countries. While is utilized as a necessary hedge (discretely outside the view of authoritarian governments) in countries experiencing hyperinflation -- where Bitcoins value volatility is nothing compared to the certain significant drop in the value of their centralized authority manipulated Fiat currencies.

The printing of money is effectively a redistribution of wealth -- sucking "value" from everyone (including the savings of the collective middle income groups) typically to the ultra-wealthy -- as corporate welfare and socialism for the rich.

cybernetwork

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